{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b5ffde4-d0c0-452e-8a00-0f659ca715fe", "symbol": "2633", "name": "Taiwan High Speed Rail Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 58.863, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 30.417, "architecture_energy": 37.741, "architecture_maturity": 9.569, "architecture_confidence": 44.951, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.74, "rotation_up": 58.98, "upward_expansion": 53.01, "deceleration": 30.55, "rotation_down": 19.52, "downward_expansion": 13.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.926666, 25.763755, 25.390838, 25.352188 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 25.9, "trend_reference": 25.401956, "distance_from_trend": 0.019607, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.227568, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.012489, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -29.454887, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.002862, "excess_performance": -0.43851, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019607, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014659, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.012489, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057536, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.294549, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077223, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.002862, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.632263, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23899232, "relative_activity": 0.500253, "balance": 0.632263, "dry_up": 0.526578, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02828, "annualized_volatility": 0.119126, "from_high_reference": -0.072696, "from_low_reference": 0.091826 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.401956, "fair_value_reference": 26.227568, "structural_low": 23.721738, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.006932, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.032441, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.001709, "worst_return": -0.021849, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.020126, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.01126, "worst_return": -0.063248, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.003361, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.004029, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.003135, "worst_return": -0.005128, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"volume": 22086416, "typical_volume": 48128075.15, "trend": 25.485362, "fair_value": 26.243847, "relative_strength": -28.285026, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.074657, "energy": 40.684406, "activity_lines": [ 25.79029, 25.366206, 25.189514, 25.263857 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.049999, "volume": 30578375, "typical_volume": 48019571.9, "trend": 25.46413, "fair_value": 26.238419, "relative_strength": -26.519536, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.359444, "energy": 46.375532, "activity_lines": [ 25.934203, 25.551897, 25.274317, 25.300285 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.799999, "volume": 24063674, "typical_volume": 47814476.8, "trend": 25.431377, "fair_value": 26.231674, "relative_strength": -28.152691, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.091171, "energy": 44.135712, "activity_lines": [ 25.919275, 25.667193, 25.329234, 25.321954 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 25.9, "volume": 23899232, "typical_volume": 47774333.55, "trend": 25.401956, "fair_value": 26.227568, "relative_strength": -29.454887, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.417441, "energy": 37.741177, "activity_lines": [ 25.926666, 25.763755, 25.390838, 25.352188 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }