{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b60f306-cb21-4081-ba87-e038010f3127", "symbol": "BGLOBAL", "name": "Bharatiya Global Infomedia Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 54.562, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.385, "architecture_energy": 22.872, "architecture_maturity": 14.828, "architecture_confidence": 77.643, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.91, "rotation_up": 36.1, "upward_expansion": 56.32, "deceleration": 81.23, "rotation_down": 24.8, "downward_expansion": 19.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.180667, 3.184364, 3.153095, 3.097204 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.27, "trend_reference": 3.059, "distance_from_trend": 0.068977, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.315064, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.013594, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.578759, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.119863, "excess_performance": 0.163572, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.068977, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07303, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.013594, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010871, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.015788, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025859, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.119863, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.415648, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25626, "relative_activity": 1.180307, "balance": 0.415648, "dry_up": 1.764312, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054811, "annualized_volatility": 0.271081, "from_high_reference": -0.28913, "from_low_reference": 0.248092 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.059, "fair_value_reference": 3.315064, "structural_low": 2.62, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.016463, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -3.5e-05, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.207101, "worst_return": -0.088496, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.112723, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.097785, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.285714, "worst_return": -0.118644, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.077734, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.104147, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.591837, "worst_return": -0.1, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.183616, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.093229, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.475, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.097633, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.082262, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033951, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.015674, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049383, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019663, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076087, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.102167, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047297, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027273, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048077, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.05, "volume": 14775, "typical_volume": 12317.35, "trend": 2.603333, "fair_value": 2.486859, "relative_strength": -30.484096, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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"close": 3.19, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 16870.8, "trend": 3.141667, "fair_value": 3.281859, "relative_strength": -2.205294, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.0725, "energy": 39.053514, "activity_lines": [ 3.235333, 3.202909, 3.097095, 3.080022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.11, "volume": 24403, "typical_volume": 18011.45, "trend": 3.118667, "fair_value": 3.287372, "relative_strength": -4.542351, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.030115, "energy": 15.632963, "activity_lines": [ 3.19, 3.190364, 3.106, 3.077978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.07, "volume": 14591, "typical_volume": 17709.75, "trend": 3.098333, "fair_value": 3.293269, "relative_strength": -6.35989, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.129926, "energy": 7.81546, "activity_lines": [ 3.141333, 3.170364, 3.110095, 3.074839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.21, "volume": 4477, "typical_volume": 16564.4, "trend": 3.087333, "fair_value": 3.300705, "relative_strength": 0.104862, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.635316, "energy": 11.399208, "activity_lines": [ 3.156, 3.178909, 3.127, 3.082043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.12, "volume": 108528, "typical_volume": 21250.1, "trend": 3.067667, "fair_value": 3.307244, "relative_strength": -5.261187, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.786262, "energy": 18.62508, "activity_lines": [ 3.137333, 3.169091, 3.133571, 3.084151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.27, "volume": 25626, "typical_volume": 21711.3, "trend": 3.059, "fair_value": 3.315064, "relative_strength": -1.578759, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.385151, "energy": 22.872352, "activity_lines": [ 3.180667, 3.184364, 3.153095, 3.097204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }