{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b62b015-1647-4116-884f-21e30c565cd5", "symbol": "VDPX", "name": "Vanguard FTSE Developed Asia Pacific ex Japan UCITS ETF USD Distributing", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.522, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 5.813, "architecture_energy": 19.939, "architecture_maturity": 64.826, "architecture_confidence": 76.038, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.76, "rotation_up": 15.56, "upward_expansion": 41.4, "deceleration": 87.87, "rotation_down": 44.3, "downward_expansion": 35.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.345917, 44.640919, 44.941151, 43.66451 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 43.775002, "trend_reference": 41.777177, "distance_from_trend": 0.047821, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.384747, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.542202, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 9.723703, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.187314, "excess_performance": 0.136078, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.047821, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.125991, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.542202, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.194542, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.097237, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.250584, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.187314, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.646251, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 236418, "relative_activity": 1.227387, "balance": 0.646251, "dry_up": 0.76516, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068559, "annualized_volatility": 0.342344, "from_high_reference": -0.125549, "from_low_reference": 0.556673 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.777177, "fair_value_reference": 28.384747, "structural_low": 34.895, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.002963, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.014313, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.162791, "worst_return": -0.056486, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.004522, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.019886, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.26939, "worst_return": -0.067097, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.009112, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.033371, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.031436, "worst_return": -0.068512, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005865, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037508, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052525, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.002851, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.134376, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"typical_volume": 329001.1, "trend": 40.752192, "fair_value": 28.00024, "relative_strength": 11.752319, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.577284, "energy": 22.010002, "activity_lines": [ 45.464168, 46.286544, 44.957806, 43.258731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.1525, "volume": 68813, "typical_volume": 181409.55, "trend": 41.119322, "fair_value": 28.123899, "relative_strength": 10.857452, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.390668, "energy": 24.009469, "activity_lines": [ 44.318084, 45.693762, 44.975741, 43.41359 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.682499, "volume": 144608, "typical_volume": 184042.3, "trend": 41.448923, "fair_value": 28.24896, "relative_strength": 7.810615, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.028494, "energy": 20.750171, "activity_lines": [ 43.475834, 45.04288, 44.920293, 43.51444 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.775002, "volume": 236418, "typical_volume": 192618.95, "trend": 41.777177, "fair_value": 28.384747, "relative_strength": 9.723703, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.812987, "energy": 19.938715, "activity_lines": [ 43.345917, 44.640919, 44.941151, 43.66451 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }