{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "3b667976-48d7-418d-8c95-72e108b7f5d0",
    "symbol": "FRE",
    "name": "Fresenius SE & Co. KGaA",
    "exchange": "VIE",
    "country": "AT",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^ATX",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 61.603,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 55.025,
    "architecture_energy": 77.515,
    "architecture_maturity": 11.597,
    "architecture_confidence": 71.26,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 12.84,
        "rotation_up": 83.01,
        "upward_expansion": 63.64,
        "deceleration": 13.32,
        "rotation_down": 14.04,
        "downward_expansion": 31.64
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        44.86,
        43.218909,
        41.440192,
        41.870779
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 47.18,
    "trend_reference": 43.087992,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.094969,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 35.573376,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.326273,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -14.301808,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.02198,
    "excess_performance": -0.196227,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.094969,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.037364,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.326273,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.161246,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.143018,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.101175,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.02198,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 4.311047,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 9489,
      "relative_activity": 4.885068,
      "balance": 4.311047,
      "dry_up": 2.780252,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.039734,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.298059,
      "from_high_reference": -0.080929,
      "from_low_reference": 0.3008
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 43.087992,
      "fair_value_reference": 35.573376,
      "structural_low": 36.27,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": -0.009609,
        "positive_rate": 0.428571,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.428571,
        "median_excess_return": -0.017682,
        "regime_survival": 0.285714,
        "best_return": 0.077194,
        "worst_return": -0.057123,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.005967,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.012102,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.092212,
        "worst_return": -0.11032,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.079593,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.029936,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.179115,
        "worst_return": -0.00091,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.173395,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.10786,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.241637,
        "worst_return": 0.105154,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-07-12",
        "end": "2024-07-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.024674,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-07-26",
        "end": "2024-11-22",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.041888,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-29",
        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.004502,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-01-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.083881,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-01-24",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.001364,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-02",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.084446,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-05-09",
        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.006585,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-07-18",
        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.127353,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-22",
        "end": "2025-11-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.010687,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-12-05",
        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.021784,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-01-16",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.128185,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-03",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.007089,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-04-10",
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.001818,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.049611,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 27.684837,
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        "typical_volume": 733.7,
        "trend": 24.679953,
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      },
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        "close": 39.960285,
        "volume": 914,
        "typical_volume": 861.1,
        "trend": 45.999247,
        "fair_value": 34.214814,
        "relative_strength": -23.722435,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -73.518739,
        "energy": 69.667034,
        "activity_lines": [
          41.072726,
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          44.330911,
          45.157086
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 39.970016,
        "volume": 3151,
        "typical_volume": 982.25,
        "trend": 45.782921,
        "fair_value": 34.308229,
        "relative_strength": -24.419296,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -68.963979,
        "energy": 72.909677,
        "activity_lines": [
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          44.768103
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 37.780811,
        "volume": 1050,
        "typical_volume": 1034.75,
        "trend": 45.49946,
        "fair_value": 34.382511,
        "relative_strength": -27.846286,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -78.260849,
        "energy": 82.610672,
        "activity_lines": [
          39.363525,
          40.662069,
          43.081141,
          44.251838
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 37.810001,
        "volume": 1,
        "typical_volume": 1029.8,
        "trend": 45.170917,
        "fair_value": 34.461611,
        "relative_strength": -28.810397,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -73.256587,
        "energy": 79.589421,
        "activity_lines": [
          38.613682,
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          42.417245,
          43.755744
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 36.490002,
        "volume": 225,
        "typical_volume": 1010.35,
        "trend": 44.760428,
        "fair_value": 34.5356,
        "relative_strength": -32.635794,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -79.694782,
        "energy": 84.178991,
        "activity_lines": [
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          43.195685
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 37.349998,
        "volume": 1125,
        "typical_volume": 998.5,
        "trend": 44.460984,
        "fair_value": 34.617783,
        "relative_strength": -29.773458,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -69.472481,
        "energy": 84.746899,
        "activity_lines": [
          37.444776,
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          42.717593
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 37.639999,
        "volume": 578,
        "typical_volume": 923.8,
        "trend": 44.139099,
        "fair_value": 34.701824,
        "relative_strength": -30.616277,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -66.706569,
        "energy": 81.184359,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "volume": 0,
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        "fair_value": 34.80178,
        "relative_strength": -29.486434,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -63.536525,
        "energy": 58.414673,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 39.939999,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 878.95,
        "trend": 43.740465,
        "fair_value": 34.902819,
        "relative_strength": -27.02321,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -48.883286,
        "energy": 43.13447,
        "activity_lines": [
          38.813999,
          38.482094,
          39.989238,
          41.726601
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 42.380001,
        "volume": 762,
        "typical_volume": 913.55,
        "trend": 43.589877,
        "fair_value": 35.023825,
        "relative_strength": -23.944581,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -26.02733,
        "energy": 25.272568,
        "activity_lines": [
          40.205999,
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          40.024328,
          41.638829
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 42.580002,
        "volume": 7782,
        "typical_volume": 1280.15,
        "trend": 43.459902,
        "fair_value": 35.137766,
        "relative_strength": -22.185564,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -8.815721,
        "energy": 26.44902,
        "activity_lines": [
          41.272,
          39.844575,
          40.11119,
          41.573676
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 41.880001,
        "volume": 4962,
        "typical_volume": 1307.2,
        "trend": 43.288756,
        "fair_value": 35.233208,
        "relative_strength": -21.612227,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -2.203012,
        "energy": 24.941349,
        "activity_lines": [
          41.756001,
          40.340197,
          40.170201,
          41.471747
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 43.619999,
        "volume": 5073,
        "typical_volume": 1413.9,
        "trend": 43.163609,
        "fair_value": 35.337489,
        "relative_strength": -19.105599,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": 18.908515,
        "energy": 37.60798,
        "activity_lines": [
          42.537334,
          41.117455,
          40.432256,
          41.493118
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 44.950001,
        "volume": 2078,
        "typical_volume": 1479.45,
        "trend": 43.112634,
        "fair_value": 35.454804,
        "relative_strength": -16.270028,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 45.589413,
        "energy": 58.913597,
        "activity_lines": [
          43.494001,
          42.030364,
          40.82857,
          41.608369
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 47.18,
        "volume": 9489,
        "typical_volume": 1942.45,
        "trend": 43.087992,
        "fair_value": 35.573376,
        "relative_strength": -14.301808,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 55.024891,
        "energy": 77.514673,
        "activity_lines": [
          44.86,
          43.218909,
          41.440192,
          41.870779
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}