{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b6962cd-99f2-48e4-bf80-f0bcbcef0906", "symbol": "STK", "name": "State Street SPDR MSCI Europe Technology UCITS ETF", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.553, "architecture_energy": 29.404, "architecture_maturity": 70.493, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.0, "rotation_up": 22.77, "upward_expansion": 56.3, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 35.45, "downward_expansion": 19.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 197.522667, 201.938, 200.445714, 192.305075 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 203.699997, "trend_reference": 182.091667, "distance_from_trend": 0.118667, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 142.081475, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.433684, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 15.590081, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.285011, "excess_performance": 0.2317, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.118667, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.120123, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.433684, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033735, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.155901, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103011, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.285011, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.478024, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3530, "relative_activity": 0.352704, "balance": 6.478024, "dry_up": 0.340839, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051954, "annualized_volatility": 0.262116, "from_high_reference": -0.07388, "from_low_reference": 0.662586 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 182.091667, "fair_value_reference": 142.081475, "structural_low": 147.880005, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.014791, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.006206, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.13379, "worst_return": -0.123754, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.007007, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.047217, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.112425, "worst_return": -0.051813, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.089567, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.083052, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.416899, "worst_return": -0.186878, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009834, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.063977, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075926, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056795, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027892, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023781, "active": 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139.90327, "relative_strength": 24.643703, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.913646, "energy": 61.014703, "activity_lines": [ 210.339999, 210.126182, 197.318953, 187.793764 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 192.759995, "volume": 2660, "typical_volume": 11675.4, "trend": 177.655667, "fair_value": 140.426218, "relative_strength": 16.458336, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.285557, "energy": 38.433452, "activity_lines": [ 203.769997, 207.525999, 198.026238, 188.869785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 195.100006, "volume": 3571, "typical_volume": 11772.2, "trend": 179.299, "fair_value": 140.943526, "relative_strength": 16.62566, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.228844, "energy": 29.876305, "activity_lines": [ 199.652666, 205.268, 198.824286, 189.995226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 192.080002, "volume": 3884, "typical_volume": 10372.25, "trend": 180.678334, "fair_value": 141.470962, "relative_strength": 12.334696, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.670549, "energy": 31.042627, "activity_lines": [ 196.108667, 202.411455, 199.155572, 190.819807 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 203.699997, "volume": 3530, "typical_volume": 10008.4, "trend": 182.091667, "fair_value": 142.081475, "relative_strength": 15.590081, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.552685, "energy": 29.403663, "activity_lines": [ 197.522667, 201.938, 200.445714, 192.305075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }