{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b6d337c-afaa-4999-bf6a-9edc9d76de9d", "symbol": "ITB", "name": "ISHARES U.S. HOME CONSTRUCTION ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 65.609, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 14.524, "architecture_energy": 9.983, "architecture_maturity": 24.014, "architecture_confidence": 48.998, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.09, "rotation_up": 28.2, "upward_expansion": 27.31, "deceleration": 66.05, "rotation_down": 35.01, "downward_expansion": 24.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 97.783333, 98.604191, 96.950739, 96.807641 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 101.14, "trend_reference": 98.151046, "distance_from_trend": 0.030453, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 100.059219, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.010801, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.686967, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.070858, "excess_performance": -0.196483, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.030453, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005168, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.010801, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070365, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.10687, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068319, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.070858, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.065174, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8607746, "relative_activity": 0.792317, "balance": 1.065174, "dry_up": 0.861622, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058876, "annualized_volatility": 0.301923, "from_high_reference": -0.137357, "from_low_reference": 0.192114 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 98.151046, "fair_value_reference": 100.059219, 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}, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 97.33, "volume": 10209038, "typical_volume": 11514167.25, "trend": 98.447328, "fair_value": 99.831144, "relative_strength": -11.690181, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.524933, "energy": 33.330437, "activity_lines": [ 99.696, 98.322942, 96.203064, 96.977811 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 97.09, "volume": 9325367, "typical_volume": 11343854.5, "trend": 98.426904, "fair_value": 99.898945, "relative_strength": -11.077178, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.630038, "energy": 11.316897, "activity_lines": [ 98.583333, 98.489915, 96.410395, 96.890242 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 94.34, "volume": 9300545, "typical_volume": 11056375.75, "trend": 98.333414, "fair_value": 99.954544, "relative_strength": -14.138145, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.11493, "energy": 19.929093, "activity_lines": [ 96.698, 97.960862, 96.360543, 96.626571 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 101.14, "volume": 8607746, "typical_volume": 10864014.35, "trend": 98.151046, "fair_value": 100.059219, "relative_strength": -10.686967, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.52445, "energy": 9.983379, "activity_lines": [ 97.783333, 98.604191, 96.950739, 96.807641 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }