{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b6d89c4-73ae-47c5-a423-14d17e6a6a8f", "symbol": "TIMA", "name": "ZEAL Network SE", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.149, "architecture_energy": 35.247, "architecture_maturity": 35.698, "architecture_confidence": 89.129, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.76, "rotation_up": 23.05, "upward_expansion": 4.14, "deceleration": 53.95, "rotation_down": 45.3, "downward_expansion": 75.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.866667, 44.010909, 44.792129, 45.482446 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 43.400002, "trend_reference": 46.359383, "distance_from_trend": -0.063836, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 38.817283, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.118059, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.170104, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.100914, "excess_performance": -0.165554, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.063836, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02944, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.118059, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176694, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.141701, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.168954, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.100914, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.872715, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35466, "relative_activity": 3.340413, "balance": 0.872715, "dry_up": 1.87711, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04909, "annualized_volatility": 0.145262, "from_high_reference": -0.153701, "from_low_reference": 0.041598 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.359383, "fair_value_reference": 38.817283, "structural_low": 42.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.005587, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": -0.017368, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.168654, "worst_return": -0.095495, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.015707, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.02069, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.203361, "worst_return": -0.181686, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.00595, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.039316, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.470119, "worst_return": -0.263463, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -8.579925, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.572327, "energy": 26.050707, "activity_lines": [ 44.413333, 44.378182, 45.25674, 45.897191 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.4, "volume": 29560, "typical_volume": 9072.65, "trend": 46.518521, "fair_value": 38.739, "relative_strength": -12.066588, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.548805, "energy": 32.752407, "activity_lines": [ 44.16, 44.174545, 45.014454, 45.68364 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.400002, "volume": 35466, "typical_volume": 10617.25, "trend": 46.359383, "fair_value": 38.817283, "relative_strength": -14.170104, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.148634, "energy": 35.246763, "activity_lines": [ 43.866667, 44.010909, 44.792129, 45.482446 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }