{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b6e752b-8484-43ff-b56c-13bf32c11f2d", "symbol": "3360", "name": "Sunnic Technology & Merchandise Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 58.802, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.426, "architecture_energy": 22.346, "architecture_maturity": 60.755, "architecture_confidence": 75.977, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.85, "rotation_up": 21.16, "upward_expansion": 53.83, "deceleration": 91.1, "rotation_down": 40.4, "downward_expansion": 22.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.429999, 17.392727, 16.663809, 16.186666 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16.299999, "trend_reference": 15.71, "distance_from_trend": 0.037556, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.666667, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.111364, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.110292, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.164286, "excess_performance": -0.277086, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037556, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10104, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.111364, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076431, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.191103, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059691, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.164286, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.613344, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6322123, "relative_activity": 0.590033, "balance": 1.613344, "dry_up": 0.62146, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.161397, "annualized_volatility": 0.475486, "from_high_reference": -0.316562, "from_low_reference": 0.405172 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.71, "fair_value_reference": 14.666667, "structural_low": 13.1, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.04975, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.046364, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.223368, "worst_return": -0.116352, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.005566, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.02761, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.446809, "worst_return": -0.174419, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.147574, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.167801, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.272727, "worst_return": -0.223837, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.021661, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.089844, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029963, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.007843, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006579, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056738, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060498, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.277592, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.230392, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015576, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 12.45, "volume": 1353000, "typical_volume": 1144650.0, "trend": 13.292851, "fair_value": 12.785952, "relative_strength": -13.03118, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.820817, 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"energy": 83.862657, "activity_lines": [ 19.126667, 17.447273, 16.094286, 15.726129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.549999, "volume": 42442342, "typical_volume": 10238375.3, "trend": 15.413333, "fair_value": 14.600641, "relative_strength": 1.179389, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.63228, "energy": 78.06124, "activity_lines": [ 19.586666, 18.028182, 16.470714, 16.006344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.049999, "volume": 10815639, "typical_volume": 10497728.3, "trend": 15.553333, "fair_value": 14.622436, "relative_strength": -13.319464, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.103454, "energy": 56.284571, "activity_lines": [ 18.909999, 18.054545, 16.597381, 16.111935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.7, "volume": 5897211, "typical_volume": 10605167.05, "trend": 15.655, "fair_value": 14.635577, "relative_strength": -18.62096, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.457628, "energy": 25.534189, "activity_lines": [ 17.73, 17.796363, 16.592381, 16.121398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.049999, "volume": 3600440, "typical_volume": 10584993.95, "trend": 15.683333, "fair_value": 14.650321, "relative_strength": -18.129948, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.106893, "energy": 18.647594, "activity_lines": [ 16.893333, 17.588181, 16.617619, 16.146882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 16.299999, "volume": 6322123, "typical_volume": 10714861.0, "trend": 15.71, "fair_value": 14.666667, "relative_strength": -19.110292, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.426, "energy": 22.345596, "activity_lines": [ 16.429999, 17.392727, 16.663809, 16.186666 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }