{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b70a52e-801d-4cd2-930a-ac33cf17b89b", "symbol": "MYR", "name": "Myer Holdings Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.193, "architecture_energy": 79.592, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 76.655, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.59, "rotation_up": 10.94, "upward_expansion": 19.02, "deceleration": 34.85, "rotation_down": 78.47, "downward_expansion": 90.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.234333, 0.255909, 0.259775, 0.270504 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.22, "trend_reference": 0.297213, "distance_from_trend": -0.259789, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.59323, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.629149, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.050684, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.419999, "excess_performance": -0.483705, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.259789, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151685, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.629149, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072685, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.440507, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02997, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.419999, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.744344, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33722250, "relative_activity": 0.901998, "balance": 0.744344, "dry_up": 0.994575, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113636, "annualized_volatility": 0.561455, "from_high_reference": -0.668571, "from_low_reference": 0.047619 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.297213, "fair_value_reference": 0.59323, "structural_low": 0.21, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.007436, "positive_rate": 0.535714, "directional_follow_through": 0.464286, "median_excess_return": 0.014767, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.446154, "worst_return": -0.230768, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.005873, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.023236, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.88108, "worst_return": -0.315789, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.056911, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.120356, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 1.156791, "worst_return": -0.311111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.065816, "energy": 26.908845, "activity_lines": [ 0.296, 0.278091, 0.273822, 0.291072 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.265, "volume": 29929642, "typical_volume": 38430061.25, "trend": 0.319747, "fair_value": 0.600385, "relative_strength": -32.838296, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.091801, "energy": 22.321105, "activity_lines": [ 0.287667, 0.277545, 0.272503, 0.287141 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.25, "volume": 22119375, "typical_volume": 37862111.3, "trend": 0.313066, "fair_value": 0.598264, "relative_strength": -35.389121, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.328142, "energy": 24.123261, "activity_lines": [ 0.273667, 0.274455, 0.270187, 0.282641 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.21, "volume": 62962006, "typical_volume": 38294917.9, "trend": 0.305052, "fair_value": 0.595715, "relative_strength": -45.953816, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.113756, "energy": 64.341384, "activity_lines": [ 0.249, 0.264091, 0.264361, 0.275992 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.22, "volume": 33722250, "typical_volume": 37386153.3, "trend": 0.297213, "fair_value": 0.59323, "relative_strength": -44.050684, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.193269, "energy": 79.591847, "activity_lines": [ 0.234333, 0.255909, 0.259775, 0.270504 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }