{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b741293-1f12-40b3-b680-5270a1486e2e", "symbol": "FVD", "name": "FIRST TRUST EXCHANGE TRADED FUND SHS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 77.853, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.792, "architecture_energy": 78.78, "architecture_maturity": 14.497, "architecture_confidence": 66.894, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.8, "rotation_up": 81.4, "upward_expansion": 94.86, "deceleration": 39.61, "rotation_down": 9.63, "downward_expansion": 16.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.178667, 49.564432, 48.675675, 48.378195 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 50.84, "trend_reference": 48.134108, "distance_from_trend": 0.056216, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 42.852028, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.186408, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.670517, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.041775, "excess_performance": -0.08385, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056216, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023077, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.186408, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070994, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.036705, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058022, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.041775, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.984084, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3149358, "relative_activity": 0.905637, "balance": 1.984084, "dry_up": 0.695435, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024271, "annualized_volatility": 0.116454, "from_high_reference": -0.011087, "from_low_reference": 0.153325 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.134108, "fair_value_reference": 42.852028, "structural_low": 46.056433, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.00795, "positive_rate": 0.580645, "directional_follow_through": 0.580645, "median_excess_return": -0.004134, "regime_survival": 0.645161, "best_return": 0.062786, "worst_return": -0.054741, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.010889, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.029897, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.049334, "worst_return": -0.046363, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.041031, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.060856, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.074939, "worst_return": -0.043591, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"volume": 2035228, "typical_volume": 3636455.75, "trend": 47.987916, "fair_value": 42.767064, "relative_strength": -1.804073, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.799274, "energy": 74.356196, "activity_lines": [ 49.767333, 49.159004, 48.395008, 48.19419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.84, "volume": 3149358, "typical_volume": 3477504.9, "trend": 48.134108, "fair_value": 42.852028, "relative_strength": -3.670517, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.791896, "energy": 78.780445, "activity_lines": [ 50.178667, 49.564432, 48.675675, 48.378195 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }