{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b7a5101-57bf-4e1f-9c47-9cb6df984a42", "symbol": "HBSL", "name": "HB Stockholdings Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.158, "architecture_energy": 26.495, "architecture_maturity": 24.79, "architecture_confidence": 81.053, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.57, "rotation_up": 21.77, "upward_expansion": 11.65, "deceleration": 57.39, "rotation_down": 49.6, "downward_expansion": 72.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 51.647334, 51.630546, 53.942048, 54.545871 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 56.540001, "trend_reference": 56.212667, "distance_from_trend": 0.005823, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 84.688011, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.332373, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.300348, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.108764, "excess_performance": -0.065055, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005823, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135611, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.332373, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102129, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.133003, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033567, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.108764, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.85615, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 60173, "relative_activity": 3.569975, "balance": 0.85615, "dry_up": 1.356205, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084692, "annualized_volatility": 0.51829, "from_high_reference": -0.480331, "from_low_reference": 0.326296 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.212667, "fair_value_reference": 84.688011, "structural_low": 42.630001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.048086, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": -0.058541, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.392978, "worst_return": -0.225136, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.085491, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.028813, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.256385, "worst_return": -0.388275, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.022148, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.037789, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.35303, "worst_return": -0.297614, "sufficient": false 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.157464, "energy": 51.744187, "activity_lines": [ 52.078001, 53.550364, 55.34181, 56.329033 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.919998, "volume": 9752, "typical_volume": 16102.05, "trend": 58.326667, "fair_value": 84.6962, "relative_strength": -24.63951, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.940292, "energy": 61.351851, "activity_lines": [ 51.239334, 52.515818, 54.862381, 55.735355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.560001, "volume": 14001, "typical_volume": 15668.35, "trend": 57.533667, "fair_value": 84.700276, "relative_strength": -22.662556, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.149537, "energy": 62.119387, "activity_lines": [ 50.496667, 51.686909, 54.376, 55.169764 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.0, "volume": 7511, "typical_volume": 14871.6, "trend": 56.676667, "fair_value": 84.686019, "relative_strength": -26.353665, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.464509, "energy": 67.780148, "activity_lines": [ 49.531334, 50.768728, 53.749476, 54.554688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.540001, "volume": 60173, "typical_volume": 16855.3, "trend": 56.212667, "fair_value": 84.688011, "relative_strength": -13.300348, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.15839, "energy": 26.495108, "activity_lines": [ 51.647334, 51.630546, 53.942048, 54.545871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }