{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b7d50e1-9ec6-47fd-b59b-50123ee0b854", "symbol": "MVOL", "name": "iShares Edge MSCI World Minimum Volatility UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 89.72, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.033, "architecture_energy": 81.459, "architecture_maturity": 16.198, "architecture_confidence": 63.037, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.63, "rotation_up": 82.57, "upward_expansion": 95.22, "deceleration": 40.25, "rotation_down": 10.12, "downward_expansion": 17.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 66.608667, 65.978727, 65.02219, 64.629053 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 67.529999, "trend_reference": 64.162666, "distance_from_trend": 0.052481, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 60.969872, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.107596, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.990148, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.062461, "excess_performance": -0.108431, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052481, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014702, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.107596, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068454, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.089901, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042667, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.062461, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 10.934796, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 76062, "relative_activity": 1.004743, "balance": 10.934796, "dry_up": 1.272213, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017542, "annualized_volatility": 0.089846, "from_high_reference": -0.005156, "from_low_reference": 0.097692 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 64.162666, "fair_value_reference": 60.969872, "structural_low": 62.060001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.001744, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000695, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.052408, "worst_return": -0.065417, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.005422, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.03568, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.075645, "worst_return": -0.039636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.037818, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.113725, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.087504, "worst_return": -0.049862, "sufficient": true }, 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"relative_strength": -8.137587, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.964435, "energy": 79.904057, "activity_lines": [ 65.875332, 65.266362, 64.485237, 64.246085 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 66.300003, "volume": 133466, "typical_volume": 75842.35, "trend": 64.016333, "fair_value": 60.874679, "relative_strength": -8.305702, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.583648, "energy": 74.391437, "activity_lines": [ 66.085333, 65.527454, 64.697571, 64.402365 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 67.529999, "volume": 76062, "typical_volume": 75702.95, "trend": 64.162666, "fair_value": 60.969872, "relative_strength": -8.990148, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.033079, "energy": 81.458648, "activity_lines": [ 66.608667, 65.978727, 65.02219, 64.629053 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }