{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b81a231-70cf-4f12-a007-9f34d287f5cd", "symbol": "TAGS", "name": "TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST AGRICULTURAL FD", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 79.431, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.909, "architecture_energy": 64.054, "architecture_maturity": 7.506, "architecture_confidence": 67.219, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.97, "rotation_up": 71.12, "upward_expansion": 86.15, "deceleration": 45.7, "rotation_down": 8.95, "downward_expansion": 12.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.251373, 24.86492, 24.70638, 24.613145 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 25.3991, "trend_reference": 24.33258, "distance_from_trend": 0.043831, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.979982, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.022359, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.403227, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.107699, "excess_performance": -0.017926, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043831, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018535, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.022359, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033532, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.054032, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015639, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.107699, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.750364, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40790, "relative_activity": 0.235052, "balance": 1.750364, "dry_up": 0.382344, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030702, "annualized_volatility": 0.153223, "from_high_reference": -0.029457, "from_low_reference": 0.125946 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.33258, "fair_value_reference": 25.979982, "structural_low": 22.81, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.003034, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00777, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.159011, "worst_return": -0.112257, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.017167, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.040629, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.213072, "worst_return": -0.122772, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.022891, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.102839, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.064141, "worst_return": -0.115735, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -2.24695, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.084071, "energy": 29.337284, "activity_lines": [ 24.670027, 24.420889, 24.517459, 24.399038 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.75, "volume": 73290, "typical_volume": 198821.15, "trend": 24.190197, "fair_value": 26.054296, "relative_strength": -0.177102, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.34633, "energy": 50.288009, "activity_lines": [ 25.121687, 24.657051, 24.627577, 24.505197 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.72, "volume": 80034, "typical_volume": 186395.15, "trend": 24.255707, "fair_value": 26.014872, "relative_strength": -4.9349, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.662911, "energy": 45.403818, "activity_lines": [ 25.10268, 24.693885, 24.634021, 24.539378 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.3991, "volume": 40790, "typical_volume": 173536.05, "trend": 24.33258, "fair_value": 25.979982, "relative_strength": -5.403227, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.909113, "energy": 64.054288, "activity_lines": [ 25.251373, 24.86492, 24.70638, 24.613145 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }