{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b865018-5546-4341-b6a3-70b7a49515bf", "symbol": "TCH-F131", "name": "Tachlit Indices Mutual Fund Management Ltd. - Tachlit SAL (4D) Russell 2000", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.741, "architecture_energy": 62.919, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 62.487, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.77, "rotation_up": 27.97, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 44.26, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 99.750667, 99.234545, 2440.508095, 4103.162366 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 99.88, "trend_reference": 6021.956, "distance_from_trend": -0.983414, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7953.581282, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.987442, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.773977, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.988835, "excess_performance": -1.017735, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.983414, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.326729, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.987442, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.078048, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.98774, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.783601, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.988835, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.700354, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 184442, "relative_activity": 4.671345, "balance": 0.700354, "dry_up": 1.901582, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.537414, "annualized_volatility": 6.351098, "from_high_reference": -0.989439, "from_low_reference": 0.079084 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6021.956, "fair_value_reference": 7953.581282, "structural_low": 92.56, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.00369, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.00905, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.073329, "worst_return": -0.049669, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.026701, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.053898, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.093198, "worst_return": -0.98881, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.024317, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.171152, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.064009, "worst_return": -0.132552, "sufficient": false }, { 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"method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }