{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b87aba7-a0d0-43a3-b406-b5e4d50d53ce", "symbol": "BEML", "name": "BEML Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 76.434, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.691, "architecture_energy": 16.678, "architecture_maturity": 17.424, "architecture_confidence": 79.164, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.41, "rotation_up": 30.53, "upward_expansion": 57.74, "deceleration": 81.74, "rotation_down": 29.9, "downward_expansion": 19.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 1771.173348, 1782.909091, 1780.085675, 1748.984556 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1787.800049, "trend_reference": 1720.674495, "distance_from_trend": 0.039011, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1755.30085, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.018515, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.776049, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.108412, "excess_performance": 0.152121, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.039011, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010335, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.018515, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145425, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.01776, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071776, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.108412, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.723418, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2219751, "relative_activity": 1.861435, "balance": 0.723418, "dry_up": 0.96814, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059647, "annualized_volatility": 0.344952, "from_high_reference": -0.21224, "from_low_reference": 0.321159 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1720.674495, "fair_value_reference": 1755.30085, "structural_low": 1353.205956, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.049963, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.051189, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.443721, "worst_return": -0.158921, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.13504, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.118098, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.267196, "worst_return": -0.308366, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.042479, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.059189, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.318192, "worst_return": -0.323602, "sufficient": 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.08312, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.132981, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046132, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052692, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.064387, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.492807, "energy": 27.466351, "activity_lines": [ 1792.099975, 1786.096631, 1772.631444, 1742.953276 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1750.400024, "volume": 884517, "typical_volume": 1140553.15, "trend": 1720.653035, "fair_value": 1750.033849, "relative_strength": -3.248828, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.877074, "energy": 15.356899, "activity_lines": [ 1775.459993, 1780.398526, 1775.118129, 1744.65249 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1787.800049, "volume": 2219751, "typical_volume": 1192494.5, "trend": 1720.674495, "fair_value": 1755.30085, "relative_strength": -1.776049, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.690932, "energy": 16.678428, "activity_lines": [ 1771.173348, 1782.909091, 1780.085675, 1748.984556 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }