{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b922176-1ca7-4ec5-bafb-cedbc2acf4e1", "symbol": "4726", "name": "Mycenax Biotech Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.946, "architecture_energy": 52.815, "architecture_maturity": 71.413, "architecture_confidence": 94.828, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.34, "rotation_up": 25.59, "upward_expansion": 8.67, "deceleration": 55.53, "rotation_down": 53.29, "downward_expansion": 82.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.46, 24.756364, 25.787857, 27.100323 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 24.5, "trend_reference": 29.076667, "distance_from_trend": -0.1574, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 38.467308, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.363096, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -46.244729, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.265367, "excess_performance": -0.706739, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.1574, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079804, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.363096, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073295, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.462447, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000443, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.265367, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.70964, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 721001, "relative_activity": 0.620177, "balance": 0.70964, "dry_up": 0.5667, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067818, "annualized_volatility": 0.232692, "from_high_reference": -0.3875, "from_low_reference": 0.029412 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.076667, "fair_value_reference": 38.467308, "structural_low": 23.799999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.011006, "positive_rate": 0.448276, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": -0.038221, "regime_survival": 0.793103, "best_return": 0.291935, "worst_return": -0.193758, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.050238, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.003911, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.209023, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.021767, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.063529, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.286127, "worst_return": -0.217593, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 38.93141, "relative_strength": -46.663462, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.65915, "energy": 60.312701, "activity_lines": [ 25.196667, 25.645455, 27.086905, 28.462258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.950001, "volume": 513210, "typical_volume": 1259202.05, "trend": 29.893333, "fair_value": 38.832051, "relative_strength": -45.842748, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.702908, "energy": 52.284104, "activity_lines": [ 25.12, 25.407273, 26.750952, 28.129355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.200001, "volume": 797093, "typical_volume": 1218529.85, "trend": 29.68, "fair_value": 38.707372, "relative_strength": -45.744579, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.588593, "energy": 56.601969, "activity_lines": [ 24.810001, 25.092728, 26.380238, 27.762043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.35, "volume": 604015, "typical_volume": 1176424.2, "trend": 29.426667, "fair_value": 38.585897, "relative_strength": -45.701226, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.496305, "energy": 56.101607, "activity_lines": [ 24.536667, 24.885455, 26.059524, 27.418172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 24.5, "volume": 721001, "typical_volume": 1162572.45, "trend": 29.076667, "fair_value": 38.467308, "relative_strength": -46.244729, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.946255, "energy": 52.815226, "activity_lines": [ 24.46, 24.756364, 25.787857, 27.100323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }