{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b9d4d68-ef66-4717-ac40-677d297f0741", "symbol": "4090", "name": "Taiba Investment Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 49.12, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -40.818, "architecture_energy": 60.804, "architecture_maturity": 10.206, "architecture_confidence": 66.051, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.31, "rotation_up": 17.14, "upward_expansion": 21.25, "deceleration": 43.76, "rotation_down": 73.22, "downward_expansion": 65.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.042, 18.457091, 19.033672, 19.083888 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 17.93, "trend_reference": 18.924975, "distance_from_trend": -0.052575, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.155009, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.063952, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.773481, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.002264, "excess_performance": 0.029566, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.052575, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025064, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.063952, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106549, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.037735, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063017, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.002264, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.738321, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 811161, "relative_activity": 0.657292, "balance": 0.738321, "dry_up": 0.930246, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048301, "annualized_volatility": 0.225821, "from_high_reference": -0.186033, "from_low_reference": 0.151335 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.924975, "fair_value_reference": 19.155009, "structural_low": 15.624451, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.049126, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.036718, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.094511, "worst_return": -0.120995, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.063869, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.037871, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.240601, "worst_return": -0.076044, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.015306, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.041269, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.312044, "worst_return": -0.08392, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.314632, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.285973, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.699163, "worst_return": -0.069898, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008586, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055527, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.100589, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019342, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.077619, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040044, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.001134, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.06866, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.077435, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012753, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038149, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017704, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014835, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 15.265908, "volume": 1032322, "typical_volume": 545902.05, "trend": 14.120138, "fair_value": 14.430942, "relative_strength": 7.709603, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.996215, "energy": 53.9746, 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"relative_strength": -1.615583, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.877584, "energy": 19.921898, "activity_lines": [ 18.988, 19.358186, 19.565527, 19.267807 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.309999, "volume": 977434, "typical_volume": 1321415.8, "trend": 18.751934, "fair_value": 19.10507, "relative_strength": -1.330638, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.575733, "energy": 42.834731, "activity_lines": [ 18.654667, 19.140182, 19.458481, 19.242448 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.200001, "volume": 2184541, "typical_volume": 1245394.4, "trend": 18.81388, "fair_value": 19.12213, "relative_strength": -2.37465, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.655158, "energy": 55.447452, "activity_lines": [ 18.424667, 18.926, 19.336464, 19.20684 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.83, "volume": 618910, "typical_volume": 1223271.25, "trend": 18.85188, "fair_value": 19.137931, "relative_strength": -2.236458, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.141024, "energy": 60.878508, "activity_lines": [ 18.16, 18.665818, 19.178703, 19.143364 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.93, "volume": 811161, "typical_volume": 1234094.75, "trend": 18.924975, "fair_value": 19.155009, "relative_strength": -3.773481, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.818351, "energy": 60.804202, "activity_lines": [ 18.042, 18.457091, 19.033672, 19.083888 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }