{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b9ecc38-1730-435a-93f4-95df5cc18b3e", "symbol": "NFXL", "name": "DIREXION DAILY NFLX BULL 2X SHARES", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.12, "architecture_energy": 77.96, "architecture_maturity": 49.277, "architecture_confidence": 95.724, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.91, "rotation_up": 23.09, "upward_expansion": 18.94, "deceleration": 39.39, "rotation_down": 57.6, "downward_expansion": 89.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.483333, 16.21962, 19.184416, 21.429964 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 16.37, "trend_reference": 23.50953, "distance_from_trend": -0.303687, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 36.899348, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.556361, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -56.926718, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.288211, "excess_performance": -0.475665, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.303687, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.203374, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.556361, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163262, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.569267, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03596, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.288211, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.568562, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4466115, "relative_activity": 0.832559, "balance": 0.568562, "dry_up": 1.466157, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.15575, "annualized_volatility": 0.800397, "from_high_reference": -0.725327, "from_low_reference": 0.302307 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.50953, "fair_value_reference": 36.899348, "structural_low": 12.57, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.23777, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.223795, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.228382, "worst_return": -0.247159, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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37.113196, "relative_strength": -58.671243, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.003297, "energy": 83.540441, "activity_lines": [ 15.292667, 16.483506, 19.799647, 21.914657 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.37, "volume": 4466115, "typical_volume": 5364319.6, "trend": 23.50953, "fair_value": 36.899348, "relative_strength": -56.926718, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.120244, "energy": 77.959894, "activity_lines": [ 15.483333, 16.21962, 19.184416, 21.429964 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }