{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b9fdb69-6734-46ac-8d6d-b63622310b0c", "symbol": "TIP10D", "name": "UBS BBG TIPS 10+ UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 49.427, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.323, "architecture_energy": 56.172, "architecture_maturity": 3.931, "architecture_confidence": 62.17, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.16, "rotation_up": 8.1, "upward_expansion": 6.24, "deceleration": 47.61, "rotation_down": 73.38, "downward_expansion": 77.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.11, 8.210982, 8.227719, 8.231025 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.036, "trend_reference": 8.234722, "distance_from_trend": -0.024132, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.539646, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.058977, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.087691, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.013751, "excess_performance": -0.184642, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.024132, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000886, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.058977, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011088, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.170877, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043864, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.013751, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.292959, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 91601, "relative_activity": 3.722536, "balance": 1.292959, "dry_up": 2.188073, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015402, "annualized_volatility": 0.082744, "from_high_reference": -0.192389, "from_low_reference": 0.010815 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.234722, "fair_value_reference": 8.539646, "structural_low": 8.008, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.000453, "positive_rate": 0.518519, "directional_follow_through": 0.481481, "median_excess_return": -0.016409, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.059942, "worst_return": -0.082985, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.004767, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.079106, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.068325, "worst_return": -0.135761, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.013751, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.144207, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.091482, "worst_return": -0.16001, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 35.234542, "activity_lines": [ 8.333933, 8.3272, 8.273067, 8.262514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.202, "volume": 35977, "typical_volume": 21386.45, "trend": 8.247007, "fair_value": 8.547791, "relative_strength": -13.127643, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.947442, "energy": 16.979865, "activity_lines": [ 8.278667, 8.310764, 8.268219, 8.25978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.008, "volume": 32813, "typical_volume": 22092.4, "trend": 8.242695, "fair_value": 8.543584, "relative_strength": -15.330904, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.446582, "energy": 33.961333, "activity_lines": [ 8.1728, 8.257127, 8.245919, 8.24436 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.036, "volume": 91601, "typical_volume": 24607.15, "trend": 8.234722, "fair_value": 8.539646, "relative_strength": -17.087691, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.323499, "energy": 56.171519, "activity_lines": [ 8.11, 8.210982, 8.227719, 8.231025 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }