{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3bad7263-284a-4b70-864f-96a409b01603", "symbol": "NGS", "name": "Natural Gas Services Group Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 63.377, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -22.289, "architecture_energy": 34.984, "architecture_maturity": 5.301, "architecture_confidence": 63.677, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.58, "rotation_up": 14.87, "upward_expansion": 18.89, "deceleration": 55.83, "rotation_down": 65.44, "downward_expansion": 48.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.272667, 38.733818, 39.58802, 39.349427 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 37.01, "trend_reference": 38.603067, "distance_from_trend": -0.041268, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.792749, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.492775, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.890965, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.021101, "excess_performance": -0.104524, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041268, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073677, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.492775, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.239904, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.03891, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16638, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.021101, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.97583, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 439430, "relative_activity": 0.807873, "balance": 1.97583, "dry_up": 1.128687, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098728, "annualized_volatility": 0.350041, "from_high_reference": -0.170272, "from_low_reference": 0.61347 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.603067, "fair_value_reference": 24.792749, "structural_low": 32.385483, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.028116, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.012541, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.238217, "worst_return": -0.102529, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.005025, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.072585, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.236782, "worst_return": -0.001018, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.271894, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.176335, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.328558, "worst_return": 0.253266, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.157915, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.102529, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.321616, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0492, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.150179, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", 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40.493255, 39.344725 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 39.46, "volume": 423131, "typical_volume": 542071.6, "trend": 37.854679, "fair_value": 23.90011, "relative_strength": 8.912701, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.325502, "energy": 35.583791, "activity_lines": [ 41.611333, 41.359695, 40.487298, 39.464396 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 40.53, "volume": 538442, "typical_volume": 554575.9, "trend": 38.098187, "fair_value": 24.097281, "relative_strength": 9.722277, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.338985, "energy": 26.744893, "activity_lines": [ 41.268667, 41.244994, 40.570918, 39.636997 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.77, "volume": 605069, "typical_volume": 564512.55, "trend": 38.314822, "fair_value": 24.282031, "relative_strength": 6.04491, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.491734, "energy": 11.6426, "activity_lines": [ 40.295333, 40.821465, 40.473427, 39.68034 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.47, "volume": 648886, "typical_volume": 562910.0, "trend": 38.425977, "fair_value": 24.449763, "relative_strength": -0.097072, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.063727, "energy": 15.578789, "activity_lines": [ 38.795333, 39.976909, 40.153818, 39.561319 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.64, "volume": 762340, "typical_volume": 574604.0, "trend": 38.508356, "fair_value": 24.619596, "relative_strength": -1.169888, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.745493, "energy": 25.831597, "activity_lines": [ 37.727333, 39.268364, 39.856099, 39.446095 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.01, "volume": 439430, "typical_volume": 543934.25, "trend": 38.603067, "fair_value": 24.792749, "relative_strength": -3.890965, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.289434, "energy": 34.983861, "activity_lines": [ 37.272667, 38.733818, 39.58802, 39.349427 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }