{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3bc27c46-6b13-4f7f-a96c-2790c6a0c2b7", "symbol": "RBOD", "name": "iShares Automation & Robotics UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.349, "architecture_energy": 30.928, "architecture_maturity": 74.331, "architecture_confidence": 93.935, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.84, "rotation_up": 32.93, "upward_expansion": 59.11, "deceleration": 88.23, "rotation_down": 27.51, "downward_expansion": 20.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.692167, 13.755691, 13.567351, 13.031882 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.4575, "trend_reference": 12.392388, "distance_from_trend": 0.166644, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.759621, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.481359, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 14.543796, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.302477, "excess_performance": 0.251242, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.166644, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087042, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.481359, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015921, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.145438, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050737, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.302477, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.303416, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 261218, "relative_activity": 0.742818, "balance": 1.303416, "dry_up": 0.966104, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050178, "annualized_volatility": 0.287963, "from_high_reference": -0.003618, "from_low_reference": 0.471127 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.392388, "fair_value_reference": 9.759621, "structural_low": 9.8275, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.028924, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.003196, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.081519, "worst_return": -0.113958, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.053824, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.018186, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.228559, "worst_return": -0.138453, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.092912, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.021648, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.294684, "worst_return": -0.190904, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.140587, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.08169, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.014838, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051031, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021863, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", 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369266.4, "trend": 12.126305, "fair_value": 9.645745, "relative_strength": 6.441539, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.794144, "energy": 39.488607, "activity_lines": [ 13.701667, 13.788933, 13.289339, 12.745129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.165, "volume": 207470, "typical_volume": 354354.85, "trend": 12.202222, "fair_value": 9.67852, "relative_strength": 6.531387, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.269506, "energy": 28.520174, "activity_lines": [ 13.456333, 13.682257, 13.34457, 12.812142 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.4375, "volume": 412536, "typical_volume": 351879.0, "trend": 12.286805, "fair_value": 9.714948, "relative_strength": 7.165082, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.664398, "energy": 25.102408, "activity_lines": [ 13.388667, 13.624334, 13.414407, 12.891837 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.4575, "volume": 261218, "typical_volume": 351657.95, "trend": 12.392388, "fair_value": 9.759621, "relative_strength": 14.543796, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.348886, "energy": 30.927946, "activity_lines": [ 13.692167, 13.755691, 13.567351, 13.031882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }