{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3bc44730-beb6-41b6-9d90-7d7eb1df9958", "symbol": "UYM", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST ULTRA MATERIALS", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.951, "architecture_energy": 12.846, "architecture_maturity": 29.224, "architecture_confidence": 78.47, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.15, "rotation_up": 35.79, "upward_expansion": 47.82, "deceleration": 74.8, "rotation_down": 26.3, "downward_expansion": 28.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.21162, 30.244686, 30.2585, 30.201699 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 31.8399, "trend_reference": 30.166185, "distance_from_trend": 0.055483, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.464599, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.250359, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.201482, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.018616, "excess_performance": -0.107009, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.055483, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075757, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.250359, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008764, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.032015, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026125, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.018616, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.680644, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31434, "relative_activity": 0.679311, "balance": 0.680644, "dry_up": 0.746002, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06534, "annualized_volatility": 0.371866, "from_high_reference": -0.075929, "from_low_reference": 0.502374 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.166185, "fair_value_reference": 25.464599, "structural_low": 25.178696, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.014671, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.619048, "median_excess_return": 0.020228, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.188854, "worst_return": -0.229111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.083668, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.017232, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.223022, "worst_return": -0.187993, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.031609, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.146284, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.267426, "worst_return": 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"direction": 9.630953, "energy": 5.778495, "activity_lines": [ 29.983358, 30.152195, 30.155699, 30.127654 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.9556, "volume": 41686, "typical_volume": 51700.15, "trend": 29.898136, "fair_value": 25.373278, "relative_strength": 1.895823, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.756706, "energy": 5.494761, "activity_lines": [ 29.881453, 30.133925, 30.164535, 30.141982 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.009, "volume": 28270, "typical_volume": 47133.85, "trend": 30.025147, "fair_value": 25.40836, "relative_strength": -2.487655, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.242041, "energy": 18.215628, "activity_lines": [ 29.517353, 29.930876, 30.078665, 30.084618 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.8399, "volume": 31434, "typical_volume": 46273.35, "trend": 30.166185, "fair_value": 25.464599, "relative_strength": 3.201482, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.950731, "energy": 12.845533, "activity_lines": [ 30.21162, 30.244686, 30.2585, 30.201699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }