{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3bc68255-c7a5-405f-ac43-3b3674d702a3", "symbol": "HKD", "name": "AMTD Digital Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 30.753, "architecture_energy": 13.202, "architecture_maturity": 33.314, "architecture_confidence": 50.6, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.83, "rotation_up": 35.5, "upward_expansion": 52.17, "deceleration": 64.16, "rotation_down": 20.72, "downward_expansion": 20.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.635333, 1.625455, 1.652333, 1.648172 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.7, "trend_reference": 1.621333, "distance_from_trend": 0.04852, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.763392, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.384814, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.137806, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.172414, "excess_performance": 0.046789, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.04852, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029854, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.384814, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095301, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081378, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059784, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.172414, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.078118, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 665673, "relative_activity": 0.660888, "balance": 1.078118, "dry_up": 0.571559, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103109, "annualized_volatility": 0.454323, "from_high_reference": -0.689214, "from_low_reference": 0.349206 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.621333, "fair_value_reference": 2.763392, "structural_low": 1.4, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.049497, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.056297, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.648045, "worst_return": -0.115068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.173805, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.217547, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.084691, "worst_return": -0.251397, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.231959, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.287352, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.061453, "worst_return": -0.308725, "sufficient": false }, { 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"balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.53035, "energy": 8.7789, "activity_lines": [ 1.634667, 1.666545, 1.67319, 1.642022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.54, "volume": 644233, "typical_volume": 2283096.1, "trend": 1.585, "fair_value": 2.891021, "relative_strength": -16.414619, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.344772, "energy": 11.006703, "activity_lines": [ 1.596667, 1.640727, 1.661143, 1.639312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.61, "volume": 630262, "typical_volume": 1666684.95, "trend": 1.593333, "fair_value": 2.858841, "relative_strength": -10.716868, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.475651, "energy": 15.688504, "activity_lines": [ 1.590667, 1.631636, 1.656333, 1.640925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.61, "volume": 550935, "typical_volume": 1092220.85, "trend": 1.602667, "fair_value": 2.826854, "relative_strength": -9.659289, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.211692, "energy": 19.086204, "activity_lines": [ 1.592, 1.623273, 1.65219, 1.642 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.61, "volume": 455917, "typical_volume": 1035325.7, "trend": 1.611667, "fair_value": 2.794931, "relative_strength": -10.237617, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.99213, "energy": 14.248768, "activity_lines": [ 1.599333, 1.615636, 1.64781, 1.642473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.7, "volume": 665673, "typical_volume": 1007240.05, "trend": 1.621333, "fair_value": 2.763392, "relative_strength": -8.137806, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.753489, "energy": 13.202082, "activity_lines": [ 1.635333, 1.625455, 1.652333, 1.648172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }