{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3bc9ccb8-301d-4e6f-8f19-a8afa0b656a5", "symbol": "XMAF", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Africa Top 50 Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -1.021, "architecture_energy": 6.266, "architecture_maturity": 10.292, "architecture_confidence": 75.571, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 67.8, "rotation_up": 29.79, "upward_expansion": 23.25, "deceleration": 37.43, "rotation_down": 21.28, "downward_expansion": 50.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.654133, 10.567782, 10.57354, 10.618592 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.122, "trend_reference": 10.781617, "distance_from_trend": 0.031571, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.339998, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.333573, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.131885, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.033374, "excess_performance": -0.084609, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031571, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003721, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.333573, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051456, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031319, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056405, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.033374, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.660485, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27966, "relative_activity": 1.289549, "balance": 0.660485, "dry_up": 0.746254, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029837, "annualized_volatility": 0.274488, "from_high_reference": -0.086414, "from_low_reference": 0.160234 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.781617, "fair_value_reference": 8.339998, "structural_low": 9.586, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.019296, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.02552, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.019081, "worst_return": -0.091785, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.004568, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.043055, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.128619, "worst_return": -0.133583, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.048491, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.001092, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.131917, "worst_return": -0.216075, 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"regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.000186, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.089758, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.054938, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041154, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024495, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", 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-4.743363, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.934361, "energy": 19.58496, "activity_lines": [ 10.521133, 10.505818, 10.556255, 10.679315 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.338, "volume": 24648, "typical_volume": 29357.5, "trend": 10.81755, "fair_value": 8.264083, "relative_strength": -7.727097, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.503441, "energy": 25.733576, "activity_lines": [ 10.474667, 10.466545, 10.532948, 10.64743 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.361, "volume": 3154, "typical_volume": 27103.7, "trend": 10.79765, "fair_value": 8.285644, "relative_strength": -8.588063, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.494316, "energy": 27.171252, "activity_lines": [ 10.434067, 10.445091, 10.519164, 10.617975 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.466, "volume": 8967, "typical_volume": 23298.6, "trend": 10.780783, "fair_value": 8.310194, "relative_strength": -8.667871, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.59787, "energy": 26.772092, "activity_lines": [ 10.438667, 10.446509, 10.516095, 10.596578 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.122, "volume": 27966, "typical_volume": 21686.65, "trend": 10.781617, "fair_value": 8.339998, "relative_strength": -3.131885, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.020723, "energy": 6.266157, "activity_lines": [ 10.654133, 10.567782, 10.57354, 10.618592 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }