{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "3bcc4e41-3c7a-4fcd-8ccd-92966135ea58",
    "symbol": "URE",
    "name": "PROSHARES TRUST ULTRA REAL ESTATE NEW",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 87.402,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 53.59,
    "architecture_energy": 37.712,
    "architecture_maturity": 37.352,
    "architecture_confidence": 68.021,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 24.44,
        "rotation_up": 50.49,
        "upward_expansion": 75.37,
        "deceleration": 58.77,
        "rotation_down": 19.59,
        "downward_expansion": 4.37
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Stable",
      "rotation_direction": "Stable",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 71.1558,
    "trend_reference": 67.263613,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.057865,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 60.8928,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.168542,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -1.791705,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.13022,
    "excess_performance": 0.004595,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.057865,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.062711,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.168542,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.003329,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.017917,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.006274,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.13022,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.652385,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
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      "relative_activity": 0.998373,
      "balance": 0.652385,
      "dry_up": 1.581199,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.059998,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.336252,
      "from_high_reference": -0.05942,
      "from_low_reference": 0.24008
    },
    "levels": {
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      "fair_value_reference": 60.8928,
      "structural_low": 57.38,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
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    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 17,
        "median_return": 0.000425,
        "positive_rate": 0.529412,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.529412,
        "median_excess_return": -0.015992,
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        "worst_return": -0.187645,
        "sufficient": true
      },
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        "horizon": "Intermediate",
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        "worst_return": -0.150856,
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        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 18831.55,
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        "relative_strength": 0.483375,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "relative_strength": 5.656687,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "relative_strength": 0.788056,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "relative_strength": -1.342926,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 52.733551,
        "energy": 31.447045,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 72.9518,
        "volume": 10569,
        "typical_volume": 15615.0,
        "trend": 65.914119,
        "fair_value": 60.529873,
        "relative_strength": 4.500147,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.420656,
        "energy": 44.75057,
        "activity_lines": [
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          69.209299,
          67.890892
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 74.6124,
        "volume": 25644,
        "typical_volume": 16255.45,
        "trend": 66.429261,
        "fair_value": 60.655674,
        "relative_strength": 7.57936,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.94673,
        "energy": 53.120844,
        "activity_lines": [
          72.586567,
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          69.894293,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 71.51,
        "volume": 66269,
        "typical_volume": 18911.15,
        "trend": 66.859173,
        "fair_value": 60.777803,
        "relative_strength": 2.067414,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 56.073441,
        "energy": 41.344418,
        "activity_lines": [
          72.367573,
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          70.239793,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 71.1558,
        "volume": 19209,
        "typical_volume": 19240.3,
        "trend": 67.263613,
        "fair_value": 60.8928,
        "relative_strength": -1.791705,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 53.589526,
        "energy": 37.711702,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}