{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3bd573db-d8ac-4052-aae5-0a9c15c8b2a6", "symbol": "000953", "name": "Guangxi Chisage Fine Chemical Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.398, "architecture_energy": 45.012, "architecture_maturity": 92.361, "architecture_confidence": 62.724, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.09, "rotation_up": 25.63, "upward_expansion": 18.64, "deceleration": 66.91, "rotation_down": 45.51, "downward_expansion": 68.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.456, 5.447273, 5.84219, 6.151806 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.72, "trend_reference": 6.545, "distance_from_trend": -0.12605, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.645705, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.01316, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.081709, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.203343, "excess_performance": -0.210742, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.12605, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095828, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.01316, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.222586, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.210817, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02695, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.203343, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.699185, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33326520, "relative_activity": 1.084111, "balance": 0.699185, "dry_up": 1.203201, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082571, "annualized_volatility": 0.318821, "from_high_reference": -0.345538, "from_low_reference": 0.155556 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.545, "fair_value_reference": 5.645705, "structural_low": 4.95, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.001463, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.028475, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.644898, "worst_return": -0.265861, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.083333, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.12319, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.267442, "worst_return": -0.190476, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.190857, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.250707, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.467442, "worst_return": -0.027624, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.038234, "energy": 78.829686, "activity_lines": [ 5.393333, 5.638182, 6.104952, 6.394925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.09, "volume": 44114793, "typical_volume": 32866457.35, "trend": 6.66, "fair_value": 5.643462, "relative_strength": -28.6239, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.630451, "energy": 67.258196, "activity_lines": [ 5.29, 5.482, 5.976238, 6.287613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.43, "volume": 30491011, "typical_volume": 32141825.95, "trend": 6.595, "fair_value": 5.643974, "relative_strength": -22.020834, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.05868, "energy": 59.135988, "activity_lines": [ 5.331333, 5.424182, 5.89081, 6.208258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.72, "volume": 33326520, "typical_volume": 30740869.75, "trend": 6.545, "fair_value": 5.645705, "relative_strength": -21.081709, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.398227, "energy": 45.011726, "activity_lines": [ 5.456, 5.447273, 5.84219, 6.151806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }