{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3bd5a182-7795-4e07-95ca-54215b5c0877", "symbol": "MISL", "name": "FIRST TRUST EXCHANGE TRADED FUND INDXX AEROSPACE & DEFENSE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.83, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.845, "architecture_energy": 27.202, "architecture_maturity": 7.323, "architecture_confidence": 89.152, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.23, "rotation_up": 21.13, "upward_expansion": 8.29, "deceleration": 41.01, "rotation_down": 50.04, "downward_expansion": 76.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.55, 44.729273, 45.171524, 45.589802 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 47.22, "trend_reference": 46.452084, "distance_from_trend": 0.016531, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.004892, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.388624, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.015161, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.031965, "excess_performance": -0.15759, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.016531, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01978, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.388624, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011895, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.050152, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001663, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.031965, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.906675, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 477524, "relative_activity": 0.293521, "balance": 0.906675, "dry_up": 0.300058, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057016, "annualized_volatility": 0.289445, "from_high_reference": -0.075346, "from_low_reference": 0.250027 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.452084, "fair_value_reference": 34.004892, "structural_low": 41.76, 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2235620.3, "trend": 45.877505, "fair_value": 32.881212, "relative_strength": -3.534505, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.663473, "energy": 19.660504, "activity_lines": [ 46.56, 46.003273, 46.16448, 46.398263 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 46.4, "volume": 284907, "typical_volume": 2216211.0, "trend": 46.112463, "fair_value": 33.036175, "relative_strength": -3.76575, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.187568, "energy": 11.022764, "activity_lines": [ 46.564, 46.107818, 46.131595, 46.431972 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 44.1, "volume": 518542, "typical_volume": 2197502.9, "trend": 46.225263, "fair_value": 33.172223, "relative_strength": -6.294941, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.4918, "energy": 16.929641, "activity_lines": [ 45.672, 45.800182, 45.891562, 46.302136 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 46.85, "volume": 616171, "typical_volume": 2137064.95, "trend": 46.428454, "fair_value": 33.327154, "relative_strength": -2.642547, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.788573, "energy": 13.581613, "activity_lines": [ 45.860667, 46.046727, 45.935716, 46.342441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 44.53, "volume": 402193, "typical_volume": 2112223.9, "trend": 46.515003, "fair_value": 33.466343, "relative_strength": -8.651435, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.652422, "energy": 28.130293, "activity_lines": [ 45.414, 45.815273, 45.765107, 46.21996 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 42.53, "volume": 348570, "typical_volume": 1785116.8, "trend": 46.513565, "fair_value": 33.59152, "relative_strength": -11.224017, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.375408, "energy": 55.046645, "activity_lines": [ 44.394667, 45.206727, 45.428062, 45.962864 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.48, "volume": 670527, "typical_volume": 1724628.2, "trend": 46.521475, "fair_value": 33.721964, "relative_strength": -8.609354, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.508948, "energy": 54.199767, "activity_lines": [ 43.927333, 44.814909, 45.213679, 45.76715 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.03, "volume": 456016, "typical_volume": 1675010.05, "trend": 46.477408, "fair_value": 33.850047, "relative_strength": -10.396587, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.847479, "energy": 61.848918, "activity_lines": [ 43.504667, 44.359091, 44.984005, 45.541893 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.22, "volume": 477524, "typical_volume": 1626882.75, "trend": 46.452084, "fair_value": 34.004892, "relative_strength": -5.015161, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.844979, "energy": 27.201707, "activity_lines": [ 44.55, 44.729273, 45.171524, 45.589802 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }