{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3bd74d03-9744-4bac-ab04-34997d0135fe", "symbol": "EUS5", "name": "WisdomTree Long USD Short EUR 5x Daily", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 94.42, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.67, "architecture_energy": 33.357, "architecture_maturity": 59.775, "architecture_confidence": 40.225, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.35, "rotation_up": 40.02, "upward_expansion": 66.18, "deceleration": 65.13, "rotation_down": 25.26, "downward_expansion": 16.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 89.796001, 90.247819, 87.772334, 86.149226 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 87.080002, "trend_reference": 83.817333, "distance_from_trend": 0.038926, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 99.774532, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.127232, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.071167, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.142033, "excess_performance": -0.028859, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.038926, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036612, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.127232, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09473, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.090712, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057488, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.142033, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.712397, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5754, "relative_activity": 2.312376, "balance": 0.712397, "dry_up": 1.38626, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045166, "annualized_volatility": 0.285247, "from_high_reference": -0.083368, "from_low_reference": 0.243822 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 83.817333, "fair_value_reference": 99.774532, "structural_low": 72.449997, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.01582, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.019855, "regime_survival": 0.730769, "best_return": 0.157326, "worst_return": -0.249133, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.095327, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.040176, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.370151, "worst_return": -0.32904, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.015353, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.118431, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.655851, "worst_return": -0.298202, "sufficient": true }, { 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"relative_strength": -4.533528, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.000173, "energy": 48.65849, "activity_lines": [ 91.219334, 90.660909, 87.640572, 85.928301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 87.080002, "volume": 5754, "typical_volume": 2488.35, "trend": 83.817333, "fair_value": 99.774532, "relative_strength": -9.071167, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.66966, "energy": 33.35734, "activity_lines": [ 89.796001, 90.247819, 87.772334, 86.149226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }