{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3bd8bd35-86a3-4a5a-88ae-7b9e49c9e00f", "symbol": "002575", "name": "Guang Dong Qun Xing Toys Joint-Stockco.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.011, "architecture_energy": 63.002, "architecture_maturity": 30.255, "architecture_confidence": 90.916, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.82, "rotation_up": 18.06, "upward_expansion": 12.55, "deceleration": 43.13, "rotation_down": 62.7, "downward_expansion": 85.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.918, 5.115636, 5.614952, 6.073763 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.2, "trend_reference": 6.526, "distance_from_trend": -0.203187, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.683974, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.22202, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.113545, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.277778, "excess_performance": -0.285178, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.203187, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053609, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.22202, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.2937, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.271135, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011117, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.277778, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.145396, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 181748818, "relative_activity": 0.769266, "balance": 1.145396, "dry_up": 0.784885, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.14068, "annualized_volatility": 0.60417, "from_high_reference": -0.481555, "from_low_reference": 0.283951 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.526, "fair_value_reference": 6.683974, "structural_low": 4.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.006536, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": 0.017207, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.288783, "worst_return": -0.217839, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.05709, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.074969, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.795506, "worst_return": -0.379828, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.06921, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.1787, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.633947, "worst_return": -0.138412, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 4.45, "volume": 114003562, "typical_volume": 281893254.75, "trend": 6.661333, "fair_value": 6.689487, "relative_strength": -38.034934, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.225632, "energy": 85.898128, "activity_lines": [ 5.072667, 5.440545, 6.035286, 6.394796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.56, "volume": 219375528, "typical_volume": 279899110.05, "trend": 6.596, "fair_value": 6.685, "relative_strength": -35.621224, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.167501, "energy": 83.351097, "activity_lines": [ 4.816, 5.220182, 5.84519, 6.259226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.08, "volume": 226628231, "typical_volume": 255269889.0, "trend": 6.558667, "fair_value": 6.684231, "relative_strength": -26.107173, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.886735, "energy": 77.881179, "activity_lines": [ 4.822, 5.145455, 5.717619, 6.161419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.2, "volume": 181748818, "typical_volume": 236262566.0, "trend": 6.526, "fair_value": 6.683974, "relative_strength": -27.113545, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.010769, "energy": 63.001563, "activity_lines": [ 4.918, 5.115636, 5.614952, 6.073763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }