{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3bd95356-097d-4c06-af9d-d0f4f7f4e2db", "symbol": "DUG", "name": "DUG Technology Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 51.125, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -33.675, "architecture_energy": 48.868, "architecture_maturity": 43.204, "architecture_confidence": 83.946, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.98, "rotation_up": 14.52, "upward_expansion": 23.09, "deceleration": 51.79, "rotation_down": 67.35, "downward_expansion": 50.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.022333, 2.102, 2.164952, 2.141344 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.935, "trend_reference": 2.097667, "distance_from_trend": -0.077546, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.995, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.030075, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.740412, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.201863, "excess_performance": 0.138158, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.077546, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010518, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.030075, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.254974, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.137404, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.370966, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.201863, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.35194, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 373742, "relative_activity": 0.507751, "balance": 0.35194, "dry_up": 0.931276, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089048, "annualized_volatility": 0.398463, "from_high_reference": -0.321053, "from_low_reference": 0.6125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.097667, "fair_value_reference": 1.995, "structural_low": 1.615, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.047142, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.041812, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.695312, "worst_return": -0.233333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.287584, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.229929, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.726562, "worst_return": -0.137931, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.229838, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.203566, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.572222, "worst_return": -0.36747, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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2.276182, 2.215381, 2.156839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.18, "volume": 673777, "typical_volume": 723363.3, "trend": 2.109833, "fair_value": 1.982885, "relative_strength": 4.655825, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.76647, "energy": 17.574375, "activity_lines": [ 2.228667, 2.256364, 2.217643, 2.161581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.09, "volume": 905694, "typical_volume": 722294.8, "trend": 2.1085, "fair_value": 1.98641, "relative_strength": -0.235433, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.119113, "energy": 12.76, "activity_lines": [ 2.182, 2.221455, 2.210167, 2.160301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.06, "volume": 385546, "typical_volume": 718129.3, "trend": 2.107167, "fair_value": 1.989359, "relative_strength": -1.946886, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.756545, "energy": 12.58216, "activity_lines": [ 2.130667, 2.185818, 2.200214, 2.157172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.03, "volume": 1076966, "typical_volume": 755855.75, "trend": 2.103167, "fair_value": 1.992308, "relative_strength": -6.140581, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.25533, "energy": 26.734559, "activity_lines": [ 2.084, 2.150545, 2.187214, 2.152194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.935, "volume": 373742, "typical_volume": 736073.05, "trend": 2.097667, "fair_value": 1.995, "relative_strength": -13.740412, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.6745, "energy": 48.868006, "activity_lines": [ 2.022333, 2.102, 2.164952, 2.141344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }