{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3bea682f-428f-4d25-96bc-c9a20d8e8d24", "symbol": "IBM", "name": "International Business Machines", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.451, "architecture_energy": 41.693, "architecture_maturity": 8.412, "architecture_confidence": 69.93, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.51, "rotation_up": 13.84, "upward_expansion": 7.92, "deceleration": 44.17, "rotation_down": 66.41, "downward_expansion": 74.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 229.098, 244.072, 249.673857, 249.927702 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 237.28, "trend_reference": 254.986172, "distance_from_trend": -0.06944, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 218.078397, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.088049, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.642025, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.195793, "excess_performance": -0.321418, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.06944, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055944, "read": "Falling" 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199.19, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.026035, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.026612, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.207009, "worst_return": -0.025542, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.141184, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.064803, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.229941, "worst_return": 0.120206, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.118737, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.089456, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.142725, "worst_return": 0.093625, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 215.711189, "relative_strength": -3.614194, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.279896, "energy": 24.378447, "activity_lines": [ 278.747333, 274.122545, 260.589231, 259.964417 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 212.67, "volume": 137738920, "typical_volume": 42494903.7, "trend": 262.119266, "fair_value": 216.266289, "relative_strength": -27.019525, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.456537, "energy": 8.885177, "activity_lines": [ 258.300667, 264.506364, 256.75809, 256.592632 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 214.19, "volume": 62030953, "typical_volume": 43826450.6, "trend": 259.221321, "fair_value": 216.804898, "relative_strength": -25.655926, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.342148, "energy": 29.818338, "activity_lines": [ 242.332, 255.477273, 253.194502, 253.500422 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 223.65, "volume": 49207860, "typical_volume": 45038697.55, "trend": 257.085827, "fair_value": 217.399554, "relative_strength": -22.844796, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.674144, "energy": 39.288957, "activity_lines": [ 231.844, 248.261091, 250.735533, 251.205498 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 237.28, "volume": 30252797, "typical_volume": 44938589.15, "trend": 254.986172, "fair_value": 218.078397, "relative_strength": -20.642025, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.450773, "energy": 41.692723, "activity_lines": [ 229.098, 244.072, 249.673857, 249.927702 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }