{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3bf3c0bd-0ae2-4922-a6f0-6b90e5370c06", "symbol": "XDPU", "name": "Xtrackers S&P 500 UCITS ETF 4C - USD", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 85.279, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.055, "architecture_energy": 61.803, "architecture_maturity": 66.572, "architecture_confidence": 64.584, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.39, "rotation_up": 53.54, "upward_expansion": 80.58, "deceleration": 69.58, "rotation_down": 27.73, "downward_expansion": 9.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.651267, 14.576091, 14.444933, 14.159447 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.044, "trend_reference": 13.832333, "distance_from_trend": 0.087597, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.305571, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.330671, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.310104, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.131383, "excess_performance": 0.080148, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.087597, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035398, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.330671, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004622, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.033101, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024173, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.131383, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.394489, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 97320, "relative_activity": 0.496702, "balance": 0.394489, "dry_up": 2.012068, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018617, "annualized_volatility": 0.12942, "from_high_reference": -0.003709, "from_low_reference": 0.230895 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.832333, "fair_value_reference": 11.305571, "structural_low": 12.336, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.010263, "positive_rate": 0.730769, "directional_follow_through": 0.730769, "median_excess_return": 4.1e-05, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.053326, "worst_return": -0.087992, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.053364, "positive_rate": 0.9, "directional_follow_through": 0.9, "median_excess_return": 0.01088, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.085588, "worst_return": -0.068101, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.109575, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.045332, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.153777, "worst_return": 0.000347, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 14.513667, 14.367891, 13.87929, 13.686017 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 14.514, "volume": 74040, "typical_volume": 246267.6, "trend": 13.525667, "fair_value": 11.031375, "relative_strength": 5.046822, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.361779, "energy": 64.69879, "activity_lines": [ 14.516133, 14.4306, 13.967119, 13.753768 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 14.292, "volume": 10836, "typical_volume": 238016.1, "trend": 13.563133, "fair_value": 11.069612, "relative_strength": 1.99568, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.594469, "energy": 57.284854, "activity_lines": [ 14.436067, 14.4294, 14.02839, 13.803209 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 14.539, "volume": 466, "typical_volume": 218461.15, "trend": 13.606333, "fair_value": 11.109753, "relative_strength": 2.090446, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.095901, "energy": 54.243817, "activity_lines": [ 14.452733, 14.464164, 14.108448, 13.866168 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.649, "volume": 290916, "typical_volume": 221870.25, "trend": 13.6564, "fair_value": 11.149346, "relative_strength": 4.563839, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.238242, "energy": 62.025365, "activity_lines": [ 14.516133, 14.505655, 14.192776, 13.933437 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.493, "volume": 1244782, "typical_volume": 212063.95, "trend": 13.700533, "fair_value": 11.1875, "relative_strength": 2.409506, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.419352, "energy": 57.929458, "activity_lines": [ 14.5184, 14.507564, 14.255724, 13.987411 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.442, "volume": 160916, "typical_volume": 204559.9, "trend": 13.737967, "fair_value": 11.224907, "relative_strength": 0.755418, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.074548, "energy": 55.447771, "activity_lines": [ 14.499933, 14.496655, 14.307971, 14.035247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.397, "volume": 73898, "typical_volume": 204155.85, "trend": 13.777933, "fair_value": 11.262747, "relative_strength": -0.784646, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.504187, "energy": 44.97014, "activity_lines": [ 14.471267, 14.476545, 14.34931, 14.077766 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.044, "volume": 97320, "typical_volume": 195932.2, "trend": 13.832333, "fair_value": 11.305571, "relative_strength": 3.310104, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.055372, "energy": 61.802563, "activity_lines": [ 14.651267, 14.576091, 14.444933, 14.159447 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }