{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3bfc4d17-9178-4c5f-ad64-b4c00fc17919", "symbol": "S63", "name": "Singapore Technologies Engineering Ltd", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -17.921, "architecture_energy": 31.592, "architecture_maturity": 13.405, "architecture_confidence": 67.81, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.99, "rotation_up": 21.3, "upward_expansion": 28.28, "deceleration": 49.25, "rotation_down": 58.68, "downward_expansion": 41.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.369333, 10.507273, 10.659179, 10.654335 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.32, "trend_reference": 10.50455, "distance_from_trend": -0.017569, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.326136, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.631328, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.321706, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.077641, "excess_performance": -0.077194, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.017569, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079584, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.631328, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.227059, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.083217, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.186121, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.077641, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.42171, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21522200, "relative_activity": 1.17209, "balance": 1.42171, "dry_up": 1.282191, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050572, "annualized_volatility": 0.256601, "from_high_reference": -0.100267, "from_low_reference": 0.394239 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.50455, "fair_value_reference": 6.326136, "structural_low": 9.428534, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.007881, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.005681, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.082497, "worst_return": -0.070968, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.013344, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005773, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.304557, "worst_return": -0.107969, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.053985, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.032905, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.285058, "worst_return": -0.055892, "sufficient": false }, { 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"stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.611009, "energy": 7.019337, "activity_lines": [ 10.647333, 10.709999, 10.772757, 10.683454 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.08, "volume": 32485800, "typical_volume": 18944268.6, "trend": 10.455439, "fair_value": 6.282043, "relative_strength": -9.509293, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -9.54817, "energy": 17.11736, "activity_lines": [ 10.457333, 10.576364, 10.702991, 10.663072 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.32, "volume": 21522200, "typical_volume": 18362234.3, "trend": 10.50455, "fair_value": 6.326136, "relative_strength": -8.321706, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.921336, "energy": 31.591651, "activity_lines": [ 10.369333, 10.507273, 10.659179, 10.654335 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }