{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3bfd0a63-d662-4397-b4a7-dcd2db4daed8", "symbol": "5310", "name": "CGS International Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 71.174, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 10.27, "architecture_energy": 13.535, "architecture_maturity": 6.384, "architecture_confidence": 37.988, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.3, "rotation_up": 48.89, "upward_expansion": 37.44, "deceleration": 28.2, "rotation_down": 21.13, "downward_expansion": 21.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.1, 24.783636, 24.453571, 24.698064 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 25.15, "trend_reference": 25.03, "distance_from_trend": 0.004794, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 36.40032, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.309072, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -42.964808, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.02444, "excess_performance": -0.416932, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004794, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065289, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.309072, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043823, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.429648, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.135121, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.02444, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.430111, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22255, "relative_activity": 0.294326, "balance": 0.430111, "dry_up": 0.886424, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084722, "annualized_volatility": 0.376928, "from_high_reference": -0.453261, "from_low_reference": 0.143182 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.03, "fair_value_reference": 36.40032, "structural_low": 22.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.046713, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.230769, "median_excess_return": -0.049247, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.119718, "worst_return": -0.102041, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.101163, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.095028, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.020408, "worst_return": -0.137476, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.083652, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.157273, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.074766, "worst_return": -0.271304, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.216822, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.409575, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.182717, "worst_return": -0.498986, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-05-19", "end": "2023-05-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.127273, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-06-02", "end": "2023-06-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.105263, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-06-30", "end": "2023-07-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068182, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-07-21", "end": "2023-09-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.128696, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2023-10-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018633, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.147253, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.474104, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06264, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.196474, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.033477, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.127789, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.437931, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017578, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 27.299999, "volume": 220000, "typical_volume": 575700.0, "trend": 26.723333, "fair_value": 29.129814, "relative_strength": -7.436041, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", 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-45.983033, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.845959, "energy": 13.215096, "activity_lines": [ 24.436667, 24.21, 24.275238, 24.69129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.6, "volume": 40100, "typical_volume": 76759.7, "trend": 25.231667, "fair_value": 36.43782, "relative_strength": -41.34941, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.383836, "energy": 7.887928, "activity_lines": [ 24.87, 24.496364, 24.360714, 24.708387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.0, "volume": 19655, "typical_volume": 75706.4, "trend": 25.078333, "fair_value": 36.417308, "relative_strength": -42.728767, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.184635, "energy": 11.531491, "activity_lines": [ 24.976667, 24.644545, 24.397381, 24.693441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 25.15, "volume": 22255, "typical_volume": 75613.35, "trend": 25.03, "fair_value": 36.40032, "relative_strength": -42.964808, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.270215, "energy": 13.534822, "activity_lines": [ 25.1, 24.783636, 24.453571, 24.698064 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }