{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3c0a7b16-d3ac-44a1-80e6-fd6733d3b3ca", "symbol": "4170", "name": "Tourism Enterprise Company (Shams)", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 48.068, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -13.919, "architecture_energy": 30.008, "architecture_maturity": 55.313, "architecture_confidence": 81.651, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.57, "rotation_up": 16.73, "upward_expansion": 45.44, "deceleration": 84.62, "rotation_down": 51.25, "downward_expansion": 37.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.152667, 15.860182, 16.008428, 15.697763 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.49, "trend_reference": 15.108667, "distance_from_trend": -0.040948, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.055513, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.097506, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.197111, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.08296, "excess_performance": 0.114789, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.040948, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088547, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.097506, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057676, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.041971, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034235, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.08296, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.883838, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1042156, "relative_activity": 0.41524, "balance": 1.883838, "dry_up": 0.446368, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069969, "annualized_volatility": 0.289224, "from_high_reference": -0.296602, "from_low_reference": 0.38 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.108667, "fair_value_reference": 16.055513, "structural_low": 12.25, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.029271, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.3125, "median_excess_return": -0.033359, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.40949, "worst_return": -0.214545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.088889, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.067206, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.21044, "worst_return": -0.312088, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.214286, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.110281, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.432885, "worst_return": -0.379105, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.297359, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.265457, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.6441, "worst_return": -0.049383, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.172839, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021053, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.042105, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042553, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020833, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.116484, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.124915, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.167732, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.094177, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024559, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010989, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037209, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 15.8, "volume": 2744435, "typical_volume": 2163844.45, "trend": 16.299333, "fair_value": 21.488232, "relative_strength": -26.138319, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": 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"activity_lines": [ 17.184667, 16.751273, 16.108286, 15.450796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 16.48, "volume": 1237814, "typical_volume": 3152864.65, "trend": 14.587, "fair_value": 16.090321, "relative_strength": 7.024773, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.146177, "energy": 52.915636, "activity_lines": [ 16.978, 16.762727, 16.200667, 15.582043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.129999, "volume": 1201570, "typical_volume": 3022363.4, "trend": 14.733, "fair_value": 16.084744, "relative_strength": 5.721859, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.664812, "energy": 36.34013, "activity_lines": [ 16.666666, 16.702, 16.250857, 15.681591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.3, "volume": 1488384, "typical_volume": 2776707.3, "trend": 14.863333, "fair_value": 16.07641, "relative_strength": 0.433625, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.563154, "energy": 16.701394, "activity_lines": [ 16.142, 16.478727, 16.211428, 15.718172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.05, "volume": 749006, "typical_volume": 2503707.05, "trend": 14.993, "fair_value": 16.066474, "relative_strength": 1.236679, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.470199, "energy": 19.248807, "activity_lines": [ 15.676, 16.213091, 16.138095, 15.730215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.49, "volume": 1042156, "typical_volume": 2509768.15, "trend": 15.108667, "fair_value": 16.055513, "relative_strength": -4.197111, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -13.919092, "energy": 30.008099, "activity_lines": [ 15.152667, 15.860182, 16.008428, 15.697763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }