{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3c0ab3ad-383a-4643-8bbb-2526108aaa8a", "symbol": "CFV", "name": "Confinvest Oro S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.053, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.388, "architecture_energy": 27.816, "architecture_maturity": 22.119, "architecture_confidence": 55.305, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.63, "rotation_up": 37.52, "upward_expansion": 71.54, "deceleration": 65.73, "rotation_down": 24.34, "downward_expansion": 2.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.205333, 2.202909, 2.187481, 2.133274 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.2, "trend_reference": 2.061209, "distance_from_trend": 0.067335, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.739974, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.264387, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.554158, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.172434, "excess_performance": 0.001542, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.067335, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065769, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.264387, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015852, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.035542, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077745, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.172434, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.605505, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18000, "relative_activity": 0.130814, "balance": 1.605505, "dry_up": 0.759448, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062238, "annualized_volatility": 0.341638, "from_high_reference": -0.083333, "from_low_reference": 0.340927 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.061209, "fair_value_reference": 1.739974, "structural_low": 1.778196, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.005988, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.029728, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.135922, "worst_return": -0.09901, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.028249, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.062262, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.124313, "worst_return": -0.153465, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.097826, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.001542, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.172434, "worst_return": -0.0113, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 2.185333, 2.197818, 2.14456, 2.085707 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.28, "volume": 254000, "typical_volume": 154300.0, "trend": 2.025262, "fair_value": 1.730646, "relative_strength": 2.903707, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.757867, "energy": 36.042751, "activity_lines": [ 2.222667, 2.213455, 2.16403, 2.103242 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.18, "volume": 109000, "typical_volume": 148250.0, "trend": 2.039474, "fair_value": 1.73367, "relative_strength": -1.355374, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.054514, "energy": 32.051339, "activity_lines": [ 2.217333, 2.209091, 2.172101, 2.113225 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.2, "volume": 37000, "typical_volume": 139100.0, "trend": 2.049769, "fair_value": 1.736945, "relative_strength": -0.937967, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.147752, "energy": 28.425677, "activity_lines": [ 2.213333, 2.206182, 2.180515, 2.123582 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.2, "volume": 18000, "typical_volume": 137600.0, "trend": 2.061209, "fair_value": 1.739974, "relative_strength": -3.554158, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.387905, "energy": 27.815897, "activity_lines": [ 2.205333, 2.202909, 2.187481, 2.133274 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }