{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3c0c6568-5093-4e4a-aabb-59762d14b4e4", "symbol": "UBRL", "name": "GRANITESHARES 2X LONG UBER DAILY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.109, "architecture_energy": 36.671, "architecture_maturity": 47.035, "architecture_confidence": 92.144, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.27, "rotation_up": 18.26, "upward_expansion": 7.6, "deceleration": 42.06, "rotation_down": 52.11, "downward_expansion": 76.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.52384, 14.846595, 15.202228, 15.567782 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 15.76, "trend_reference": 16.381383, "distance_from_trend": -0.037932, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.880355, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.279719, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.462544, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.096848, "excess_performance": -0.284302, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.037932, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154392, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.279719, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018991, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.354625, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068173, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.096848, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.139301, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2157733, "relative_activity": 2.596583, "balance": 1.139301, "dry_up": 1.2248, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.140839, "annualized_volatility": 0.632259, "from_high_reference": -0.546014, "from_low_reference": 0.289689 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.381383, "fair_value_reference": 21.880355, "structural_low": 12.22, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.087225, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.086696, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.123305, "worst_return": -0.130301, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.162658, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.377783, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.162658, "worst_return": -0.162658, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 22.021877, "relative_strength": -47.990401, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.455789, "energy": 37.548207, "activity_lines": [ 14.54968, 14.843395, 15.338812, 15.810575 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.99, "volume": 686669, "typical_volume": 749551.2, "trend": 16.625817, "fair_value": 21.941559, "relative_strength": -40.674589, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.39433, "energy": 46.264358, "activity_lines": [ 14.152427, 14.672267, 15.180253, 15.623641 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.76, "volume": 2157733, "typical_volume": 830989.4, "trend": 16.381383, "fair_value": 21.880355, "relative_strength": -35.462544, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.108857, "energy": 36.670808, "activity_lines": [ 14.52384, 14.846595, 15.202228, 15.567782 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }