{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3c1168be-1dbd-4230-a8bc-96686571c5d3", "symbol": "9955", "name": "Super Dragon Technology Co., Ltd", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.103, "architecture_energy": 71.571, "architecture_maturity": 35.379, "architecture_confidence": 91.719, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.19, "rotation_up": 17.39, "upward_expansion": 15.56, "deceleration": 42.9, "rotation_down": 66.08, "downward_expansion": 88.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.923333, 24.612727, 26.032143, 27.446559 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 24.549999, "trend_reference": 29.48, "distance_from_trend": -0.167232, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.223397, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.15992, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.560863, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.230408, "excess_performance": -0.67178, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.167232, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052039, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.15992, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150968, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.415609, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056924, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.230408, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.918177, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1814697, "relative_activity": 1.093238, "balance": 0.918177, "dry_up": 0.89437, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068306, "annualized_volatility": 0.271263, "from_high_reference": -0.409146, "from_low_reference": 0.121005 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.48, "fair_value_reference": 29.223397, "structural_low": 21.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.009246, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": -0.020737, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.190931, "worst_return": -0.18552, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.019073, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.033083, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.452663, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.142202, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.051409, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.406877, "worst_return": -0.030516, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.049999, "volume": 808696, "typical_volume": 1980517.6, "trend": 30.191667, "fair_value": 29.230769, "relative_strength": -42.38818, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.819855, "energy": 88.179021, "activity_lines": [ 25.006666, 25.882727, 27.286905, 28.641398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.799999, "volume": 1469062, "typical_volume": 1757421.0, "trend": 29.9, "fair_value": 29.224359, "relative_strength": -43.930395, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.027575, "energy": 92.22609, "activity_lines": [ 24.109999, 25.197272, 26.724048, 28.164516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.9, "volume": 1845909, "typical_volume": 1681248.7, "trend": 29.678333, "fair_value": 29.223397, "relative_strength": -41.899753, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.915498, "energy": 83.757941, "activity_lines": [ 23.803333, 24.809091, 26.324762, 27.777419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 24.549999, "volume": 1814697, "typical_volume": 1659928.9, "trend": 29.48, "fair_value": 29.223397, "relative_strength": -41.560863, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.102906, "energy": 71.570594, "activity_lines": [ 23.923333, 24.612727, 26.032143, 27.446559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }