{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3c142140-0a8a-4a8b-a843-496df4eeb4f4", "symbol": "RIUS", "name": "L&G US ESG Paris Aligned UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 84.525, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.654, "architecture_energy": 67.075, "architecture_maturity": 85.031, "architecture_confidence": 60.983, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.34, "rotation_up": 53.06, "upward_expansion": 82.89, "deceleration": 71.47, "rotation_down": 29.37, "downward_expansion": 11.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.628, 23.576727, 23.230219, 22.70526 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 24.129999, "trend_reference": 22.118834, "distance_from_trend": 0.090925, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.787244, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.284382, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.874583, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.144958, "excess_performance": -0.025933, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.090925, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036027, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.284382, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050045, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.038746, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004599, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.144958, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.067563, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 450, "relative_activity": 0.183367, "balance": 1.067563, "dry_up": 0.11766, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017549, "annualized_volatility": 0.160208, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.22799 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.118834, "fair_value_reference": 18.787244, "structural_low": 19.796, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.013841, "positive_rate": 0.676471, "directional_follow_through": 0.676471, "median_excess_return": -0.002577, "regime_survival": 0.794118, "best_return": 0.079942, "worst_return": -0.105334, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.049129, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.003822, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.119691, "worst_return": -0.106897, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.079107, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.041732, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.203413, "worst_return": -0.099316, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -6.249832, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.440751, "energy": 74.598303, "activity_lines": [ 23.42, 23.280454, 22.552029, 22.138733 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 23.825001, "volume": 150, "typical_volume": 2552.95, "trend": 21.806334, "fair_value": 18.546942, "relative_strength": -3.495853, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.698342, "energy": 71.877691, "activity_lines": [ 23.524667, 23.420455, 22.7306, 22.274583 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.825001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2552.9, "trend": 21.897334, "fair_value": 18.609192, "relative_strength": -2.108793, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.329225, "energy": 84.181255, "activity_lines": [ 23.621334, 23.527, 22.895767, 22.40482 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.385, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 2545.9, "trend": 21.966667, "fair_value": 18.666673, "relative_strength": -3.663824, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.755975, "energy": 65.132927, "activity_lines": [ 23.563334, 23.524, 23.005338, 22.500798 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.035, "volume": 704, "typical_volume": 2456.15, "trend": 22.029167, "fair_value": 18.723449, "relative_strength": -5.609906, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.352138, "energy": 57.031441, "activity_lines": [ 23.406, 23.452546, 23.071053, 22.569723 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.129999, "volume": 450, "typical_volume": 2454.1, "trend": 22.118834, "fair_value": 18.787244, "relative_strength": -3.874583, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.65405, "energy": 67.075095, "activity_lines": [ 23.628, 23.576727, 23.230219, 22.70526 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }