{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3c16f16d-fb88-491d-819f-e3b9debeacf8", "symbol": "300801", "name": "Shandong Taihe Technologies Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.662, "architecture_energy": 71.391, "architecture_maturity": 19.366, "architecture_confidence": 82.466, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.58, "rotation_up": 11.33, "upward_expansion": 18.37, "deceleration": 34.23, "rotation_down": 72.7, "downward_expansion": 89.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.080667, 24.823819, 26.327241, 26.952365 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 24.040001, "trend_reference": 28.02128, "distance_from_trend": -0.142081, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.843573, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.211475, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.468263, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.191119, "excess_performance": -0.198519, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.142081, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046459, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.211475, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.389082, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.164683, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123664, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.191119, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.932545, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47947797, "relative_activity": 1.379352, "balance": 0.932545, "dry_up": 1.539257, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.141071, "annualized_volatility": 0.582857, "from_high_reference": -0.444476, "from_low_reference": 0.295259 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.02128, "fair_value_reference": 19.843573, "structural_low": 18.559999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.017733, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": 0.012968, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.199685, "worst_return": -0.222059, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.041736, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.027, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.429574, "worst_return": -0.207793, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.163607, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.102005, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.300684, "worst_return": -0.222677, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 31302001.65, "trend": 28.332698, "fair_value": 19.75086, "relative_strength": -18.437492, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.258391, "energy": 66.060192, "activity_lines": [ 24.62, 25.974909, 27.097522, 27.602078 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.360001, "volume": 65780416, "typical_volume": 33490718.9, "trend": 28.13786, "fair_value": 19.791395, "relative_strength": -18.385557, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.779038, "energy": 74.222896, "activity_lines": [ 23.306667, 25.179273, 26.617729, 27.216743 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.040001, "volume": 47947797, "typical_volume": 34761107.25, "trend": 28.02128, "fair_value": 19.843573, "relative_strength": -16.468263, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.661538, "energy": 71.3913, "activity_lines": [ 23.080667, 24.823819, 26.327241, 26.952365 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }