{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3c17aee6-8d6b-4fdf-96dc-6010cacb789a", "symbol": "GLJ", "name": "Grenke AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.712, "architecture_energy": 43.939, "architecture_maturity": 65.365, "architecture_confidence": 92.169, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.04, "rotation_up": 20.26, "upward_expansion": 5.78, "deceleration": 54.36, "rotation_down": 55.5, "downward_expansion": 79.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.869333, 11.965091, 12.218844, 12.441878 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.94, "trend_reference": 12.894767, "distance_from_trend": -0.074043, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.307995, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.310145, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -31.105991, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.156471, "excess_performance": -0.330718, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.074043, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058594, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.310145, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018028, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.31106, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016602, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.156471, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.033333, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.033333, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045226, "annualized_volatility": 0.209009, "from_high_reference": -0.355, "from_low_reference": 0.031088 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.894767, "fair_value_reference": 17.307995, "structural_low": 11.58, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.007174, "positive_rate": 0.457143, "directional_follow_through": 0.542857, "median_excess_return": -0.026898, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.338902, "worst_return": -0.189376, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.006522, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.033799, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.251765, "worst_return": -0.212001, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.091901, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.117466, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.338326, "worst_return": -0.245176, "sufficient": true }, { 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.127993, "energy": 67.834925, "activity_lines": [ 12.064, 12.276727, 12.451256, 12.771796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.04, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 113.35, "trend": 13.212782, "fair_value": 17.527893, "relative_strength": -30.408252, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.298894, "energy": 66.820446, "activity_lines": [ 12.017333, 12.211636, 12.395466, 12.690627 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.74, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 113.35, "trend": 13.114861, "fair_value": 17.452761, "relative_strength": -32.064517, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.151057, "energy": 63.531191, "activity_lines": [ 11.898667, 12.097455, 12.320991, 12.595608 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.8, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 93.35, "trend": 13.007967, "fair_value": 17.375358, "relative_strength": -30.780921, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.141854, "energy": 51.601209, "activity_lines": [ 11.857333, 12.010909, 12.260318, 12.510779 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.94, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 61.0, "trend": 12.894767, "fair_value": 17.307995, "relative_strength": -31.105991, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.712489, "energy": 43.938873, "activity_lines": [ 11.869333, 11.965091, 12.218844, 12.441878 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }