{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3c21b6df-7e1d-46fe-a575-a8f12a14f444", "symbol": "EQUI", "name": "Equita Group S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.2, "architecture_energy": 32.422, "architecture_maturity": 15.672, "architecture_confidence": 38.294, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.63, "rotation_up": 42.27, "upward_expansion": 67.99, "deceleration": 67.77, "rotation_down": 21.85, "downward_expansion": 8.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.953333, 5.948364, 5.858449, 5.78673 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.9, "trend_reference": 5.748855, "distance_from_trend": 0.026291, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.169386, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.415076, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.411958, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.024975, "excess_performance": -0.145917, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.026291, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008136, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.415076, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025545, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.09412, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057224, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.024975, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.621833, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 150092, "relative_activity": 0.668438, "balance": 0.621833, "dry_up": 0.952654, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040297, "annualized_volatility": 0.199177, "from_high_reference": -0.051421, "from_low_reference": 0.312313 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.748855, "fair_value_reference": 4.169386, "structural_low": 4.973932, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.024851, "positive_rate": 0.595238, "directional_follow_through": 0.595238, "median_excess_return": 0.001955, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.10625, "worst_return": -0.15873, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.042006, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.00089, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.230088, "worst_return": -0.083096, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.093026, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.033054, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.4615, "worst_return": -0.047079, "sufficient": true 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5.837333, 5.764716, 5.695206, 5.702436 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 5.99, "volume": 70626, "typical_volume": 272511.2, "trend": 5.748342, "fair_value": 4.072691, "relative_strength": -5.951114, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.084784, "energy": 51.935406, "activity_lines": [ 5.914, 5.811035, 5.72877, 5.718799 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.95, "volume": 202126, "typical_volume": 269841.9, "trend": 5.755766, "fair_value": 4.092009, "relative_strength": -6.327016, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.790814, "energy": 54.694477, "activity_lines": [ 5.955333, 5.846357, 5.756584, 5.73181 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.05, "volume": 270744, "typical_volume": 273903.85, "trend": 5.758798, "fair_value": 4.111815, "relative_strength": -3.578401, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.809172, "energy": 56.480487, "activity_lines": [ 5.997333, 5.895636, 5.793276, 5.750793 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.97, "volume": 248405, "typical_volume": 270145.35, "trend": 5.759484, "fair_value": 4.13116, "relative_strength": -4.865561, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.236231, "energy": 57.857634, "activity_lines": [ 5.988667, 5.923273, 5.820489, 5.764418 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.96, "volume": 186400, "typical_volume": 247757.95, "trend": 5.754687, "fair_value": 4.150389, "relative_strength": -5.755359, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.05942, "energy": 43.054244, "activity_lines": [ 5.981333, 5.943273, 5.843892, 5.777355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.9, "volume": 150092, "typical_volume": 224541.35, "trend": 5.748855, "fair_value": 4.169386, "relative_strength": -9.411958, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.200423, "energy": 32.422238, "activity_lines": [ 5.953333, 5.948364, 5.858449, 5.78673 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }