{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3c224616-2fe8-47be-8d06-dcd9b9f022a2", "symbol": "MGM", "name": "MGM Resorts International", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.162, "architecture_energy": 21.989, "architecture_maturity": 63.156, "architecture_confidence": 88.68, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.44, "rotation_up": 21.5, "upward_expansion": 54.4, "deceleration": 93.66, "rotation_down": 27.45, "downward_expansion": 20.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.092667, 46.046727, 44.566, 42.68843 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 44.47, "trend_reference": 40.247667, "distance_from_trend": 0.104909, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.218526, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.163572, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.582821, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.186183, "excess_performance": 0.060558, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.104909, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.105108, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.163572, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.146794, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.045828, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072719, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.186183, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.085388, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15933567, "relative_activity": 0.785576, "balance": 1.085388, "dry_up": 0.6425, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07633, "annualized_volatility": 0.334152, "from_high_reference": -0.138011, "from_low_reference": 0.523728 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.247667, "fair_value_reference": 38.218526, "structural_low": 33.445, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.042584, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.025259, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.095597, "worst_return": -0.05938, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.041912, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.098075, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": -0.00254, "worst_return": -0.163024, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.174049, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.182283, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.033368, "worst_return": -0.338842, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.065557, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042827, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029444, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.078102, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030716, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05979, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", 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41.225097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 46.13, "volume": 12012208, "typical_volume": 22049776.4, "trend": 39.382333, "fair_value": 38.264295, "relative_strength": 13.075604, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.626667, "energy": 51.241668, "activity_lines": [ 46.979333, 46.637455, 43.667381, 41.679419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.54, "volume": 9818783, "typical_volume": 21400981.4, "trend": 39.644333, "fair_value": 38.229936, "relative_strength": 12.263377, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.478753, "energy": 38.02316, "activity_lines": [ 46.416667, 46.705455, 44.075857, 42.076688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.57, "volume": 14361880, "typical_volume": 20795021.4, "trend": 39.913667, "fair_value": 38.227244, "relative_strength": 8.622785, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.368688, "energy": 29.732984, "activity_lines": [ 45.617333, 46.441273, 44.344476, 42.394473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.47, "volume": 15933567, "typical_volume": 20282659.4, "trend": 40.247667, "fair_value": 38.218526, "relative_strength": 4.582821, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.162028, "energy": 21.988714, "activity_lines": [ 45.092667, 46.046727, 44.566, 42.68843 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }