{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3c22999b-3b73-4ca2-abe3-9a61953b4180", "symbol": "CHKP", "name": "Check Point Software Technologies Ltd.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.455, "architecture_energy": 26.79, "architecture_maturity": 25.624, "architecture_confidence": 62.934, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.58, "rotation_up": 23.76, "upward_expansion": 15.44, "deceleration": 61.45, "rotation_down": 40.42, "downward_expansion": 60.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 112.243334, 113.157273, 112.448428, 115.832516 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 109.349998, "trend_reference": 123.252, "distance_from_trend": -0.112793, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 156.435962, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.300992, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -38.290289, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.275588, "excess_performance": -0.449835, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.112793, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122764, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.300992, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083481, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.382903, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.115898, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.275588, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.406084, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 172, "relative_activity": 1.483398, "balance": 0.406084, "dry_up": 3.846486, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068686, "annualized_volatility": 0.424572, "from_high_reference": -0.396357, "from_low_reference": 0.133631 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 123.252, "fair_value_reference": 156.435962, "structural_low": 96.459999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.010855, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.052349, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.075362, "worst_return": -0.055271, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.050042, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.012404, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.271304, "worst_return": -0.114458, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.025871, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.025402, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.203478, "worst_return": -0.149555, "sufficient": false }, 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040914, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018417, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.045613, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.096014, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.004965, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-13", 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110.163332, 109.876908, 113.631333, 121.303183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 119.599998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 26.6, "trend": 131.303667, "fair_value": 156.518334, "relative_strength": -36.497021, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.753572, "energy": 35.412674, "activity_lines": [ 112.883332, 111.802181, 113.631285, 120.440258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 116.800003, "volume": 20, "typical_volume": 27.6, "trend": 129.600334, "fair_value": 156.545898, "relative_strength": -36.214362, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.440319, "energy": 23.845199, "activity_lines": [ 114.366667, 113.111999, 113.494571, 119.504538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 119.300003, "volume": 489, "typical_volume": 51.75, "trend": 128.165334, "fair_value": 156.566731, "relative_strength": -32.567144, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.098452, "energy": 18.40171, "activity_lines": [ 116.770001, 114.608182, 113.692381, 118.84 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 114.099998, "volume": 286, "typical_volume": 65.65, "trend": 126.608667, "fair_value": 156.536603, "relative_strength": -35.355713, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.442182, "energy": 17.918474, "activity_lines": [ 116.566667, 114.743636, 113.438047, 117.932559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 109.800003, "volume": 837, "typical_volume": 107.35, "trend": 125.092, "fair_value": 156.500385, "relative_strength": -36.941113, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.896747, "energy": 15.857458, "activity_lines": [ 114.433335, 113.944546, 112.905143, 116.848129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 109.349998, "volume": 172, "typical_volume": 115.95, "trend": 123.252, "fair_value": 156.435962, "relative_strength": -38.290289, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.455107, "energy": 26.790244, "activity_lines": [ 112.243334, 113.157273, 112.448428, 115.832516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }