{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3c29d38e-e52d-4f87-88de-98ce8cbfca2f", "symbol": "SPEU", "name": "STATE STREET SPDR PORTFOLIO EUROPE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 69.809, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.894, "architecture_energy": 73.773, "architecture_maturity": 15.014, "architecture_confidence": 71.11, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.53, "rotation_up": 72.85, "upward_expansion": 91.05, "deceleration": 42.61, "rotation_down": 13.41, "downward_expansion": 15.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 56.005887, 55.464274, 54.803373, 54.303431 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 57.33, "trend_reference": 53.94856, "distance_from_trend": 0.062679, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.010143, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.302654, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.98913, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.045371, "excess_performance": -0.080254, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.062679, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02734, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.302654, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030678, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.019891, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024347, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.045371, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.803801, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 136002, "relative_activity": 0.646043, "balance": 0.803801, "dry_up": 0.585275, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024145, "annualized_volatility": 0.187579, "from_high_reference": -0.003996, "from_low_reference": 0.214929 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.94856, "fair_value_reference": 44.010143, "structural_low": 49.067904, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.00692, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.006447, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.092534, "worst_return": -0.075154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.022412, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.037623, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.104248, "worst_return": -0.113318, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.019878, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.054837, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.135314, "worst_return": -0.060365, "sufficient": true }, { 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127158, "typical_volume": 332158.5, "trend": 53.596039, "fair_value": 43.620422, "relative_strength": -2.422062, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.724701, "energy": 41.596736, "activity_lines": [ 54.886406, 54.638978, 54.079043, 53.844972 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 54.7989, "volume": 105915, "typical_volume": 312925.0, "trend": 53.68725, "fair_value": 43.737435, "relative_strength": -2.000131, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.910939, "energy": 46.473678, "activity_lines": [ 54.889607, 54.72257, 54.216322, 53.922576 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 56.07, "volume": 123762, "typical_volume": 300123.55, "trend": 53.80949, "fair_value": 43.869751, "relative_strength": -0.813657, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.671575, "energy": 54.589909, "activity_lines": [ 55.30592, 54.996182, 54.4623, 54.076302 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.33, "volume": 136002, "typical_volume": 210515.25, "trend": 53.94856, "fair_value": 44.010143, "relative_strength": -1.98913, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.894276, "energy": 73.772994, "activity_lines": [ 56.005887, 55.464274, 54.803373, 54.303431 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }