{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3c2f4c97-572a-4eb7-b625-2bac99c5f360", "symbol": "TIDE", "name": "Crimson Tide plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 67.388, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -11.511, "architecture_energy": 12.855, "architecture_maturity": 16.712, "architecture_confidence": 56.82, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.44, "rotation_up": 17.35, "upward_expansion": 17.94, "deceleration": 66.46, "rotation_down": 48.55, "downward_expansion": 33.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.88, 0.891364, 0.900167, 0.894387 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.875, "trend_reference": 0.882667, "distance_from_trend": -0.008686, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.144647, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.235572, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.926506, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.029412, "excess_performance": -0.021824, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008686, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072065, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.235572, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06505, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.029265, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.172351, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.029412, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.359145, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29632, "relative_activity": 1.455328, "balance": 0.359145, "dry_up": 0.606906, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087419, "annualized_volatility": 0.377932, "from_high_reference": -0.204545, "from_low_reference": 0.75 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.882667, "fair_value_reference": 1.144647, "structural_low": 0.8, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.029514, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.060677, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.145161, "worst_return": -0.145833, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.093567, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.162093, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.37931, "worst_return": -0.210526, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.143493, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.179626, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.230769, "worst_return": -0.196429, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.328358, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.338791, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.384615, "worst_return": -0.385965, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.109375, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.140845, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032258, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.201521, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.274286, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.181818, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.12, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.259259, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027778, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.6, "volume": 6216, "typical_volume": 16465.9, "trend": 2.728333, "fair_value": 2.838077, "relative_strength": 5.686513, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early 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after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.240194, "energy": 15.667642, "activity_lines": [ 0.91, 0.923091, 0.904571, 0.892656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.9, "volume": 12586, "typical_volume": 22895.05, "trend": 0.871833, "fair_value": 1.177179, "relative_strength": 9.623784, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.730495, "energy": 15.099911, "activity_lines": [ 0.905, 0.917818, 0.905024, 0.894634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.875, "volume": 805, "typical_volume": 19605.7, "trend": 0.876833, "fair_value": 1.167083, "relative_strength": 4.963956, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.361133, "energy": 12.541099, "activity_lines": [ 0.893333, 0.908, 0.903286, 0.894839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.875, "volume": 6406, "typical_volume": 18954.75, "trend": 0.880167, "fair_value": 1.155705, "relative_strength": 3.463676, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.400524, "energy": 9.912224, "activity_lines": [ 0.885, 0.898636, 0.901667, 0.89472 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.875, "volume": 29632, "typical_volume": 20361.05, "trend": 0.882667, "fair_value": 1.144647, "relative_strength": 2.926506, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.510615, "energy": 12.855418, "activity_lines": [ 0.88, 0.891364, 0.900167, 0.894387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }