{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3c31a6d0-30c7-45da-8d85-a4d7eb79d6b0", "symbol": "DRW3", "name": "Dr\u00e4gerwerk AG & Co. KGaA", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.317, "architecture_energy": 91.457, "architecture_maturity": 20.781, "architecture_confidence": 77.738, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.61, "rotation_up": 82.59, "upward_expansion": 93.63, "deceleration": 44.68, "rotation_down": 10.69, "downward_expansion": 22.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 102.339999, 95.490909, 92.068796, 90.639802 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 109.800003, "trend_reference": 88.924057, "distance_from_trend": 0.234762, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 59.13015, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.856921, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.58831, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.300593, "excess_performance": 0.126347, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.234762, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102094, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.856921, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.255273, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.135883, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113354, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.300593, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.063063, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.063063, "dry_up": 3.508115, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056186, "annualized_volatility": 0.368756, "from_high_reference": -0.033451, "from_low_reference": 0.796354 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 88.924057, "fair_value_reference": 59.13015, "structural_low": 79.900002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.020318, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.02235, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.194805, "worst_return": -0.146056, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.046837, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.00545, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.250177, "worst_return": -0.111554, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.018664, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.004293, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.285924, "worst_return": -0.313816, "sufficient": true }, { 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019964, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.257525, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.156391, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071038, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.11276, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": 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23.422674, "activity_lines": [ 87.432336, 88.393294, 87.704496, 84.701774 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 91.300003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 35.65, "trend": 80.68646, "fair_value": 55.862569, "relative_strength": 1.348699, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.292301, "energy": 25.14318, "activity_lines": [ 88.700508, 88.935401, 88.159562, 85.429401 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 91.099998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 28.2, "trend": 81.532938, "fair_value": 56.185651, "relative_strength": 2.304078, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.738817, "energy": 31.514351, "activity_lines": [ 89.762, 89.305473, 88.508982, 86.101242 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 87.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 28.2, "trend": 82.233419, "fair_value": 56.478659, "relative_strength": -4.294739, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration 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3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.272882, "energy": 17.268657, "activity_lines": [ 85.493335, 86.798321, 87.553661, 86.824458 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 83.199997, "volume": 111, "typical_volume": 28.3, "trend": 84.533603, "fair_value": 57.603099, "relative_strength": -11.276879, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.456911, "energy": 24.527758, "activity_lines": [ 84.413334, 86.075092, 87.124495, 86.774783 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 88.0, "volume": 363, "typical_volume": 46.45, "trend": 85.276748, "fair_value": 57.900479, "relative_strength": -4.223599, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.895551, "energy": 15.619821, "activity_lines": [ 85.46, 86.300001, 87.190327, 86.998422 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 96.699997, "volume": 133, "typical_volume": 42.2, "trend": 86.280646, "fair_value": 58.255668, "relative_strength": 3.717993, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.421902, "energy": 33.486925, "activity_lines": [ 89.373332, 88.107273, 88.080695, 87.735406 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 109.199997, "volume": 66, "typical_volume": 40.05, "trend": 87.701211, "fair_value": 58.691569, "relative_strength": 16.778308, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.335874, "energy": 79.062437, "activity_lines": [ 96.599998, 91.901817, 90.105863, 89.214074 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 109.800003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 40.05, "trend": 88.924057, "fair_value": 59.13015, "relative_strength": 13.58831, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.316662, "energy": 91.457133, "activity_lines": [ 102.339999, 95.490909, 92.068796, 90.639802 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }