{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3c34dc83-495d-4989-8ab0-5fd50120b5bc", "symbol": "UPXI", "name": "Upexi Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.991, "architecture_energy": 44.976, "architecture_maturity": 39.619, "architecture_confidence": 95.848, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.35, "rotation_up": 21.13, "upward_expansion": 5.77, "deceleration": 50.96, "rotation_down": 58.06, "downward_expansion": 81.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.807907, 0.828198, 0.966013, 1.011199 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.8512, "trend_reference": 1.1155, "distance_from_trend": -0.236934, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.656863, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.901673, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -72.14825, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.253333, "excess_performance": -0.440787, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.236934, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.32339, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.901673, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010351, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.721483, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01612, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.253333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.34139, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3232677, "relative_activity": 0.27146, "balance": 0.34139, "dry_up": 0.374583, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.225916, "annualized_volatility": 1.060231, "from_high_reference": -0.906615, "from_low_reference": 0.576296 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.1155, "fair_value_reference": 8.656863, "structural_low": 0.54, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.044598, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.090176, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 5.924107, "worst_return": -0.691, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.308404, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.432578, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 2.325, "worst_return": -0.627579, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.474909, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.619389, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.259375, "worst_return": -0.709172, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.265082, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.428571, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.282813, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.092843, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010091, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.299926, "energy": 60.575058, "activity_lines": [ 0.837147, 0.906824, 1.045242, 1.087256 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.8002, "volume": 4338893, "typical_volume": 15983746.55, "trend": 1.19627, "fair_value": 9.172203, "relative_strength": -74.276326, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.364527, "energy": 51.816784, "activity_lines": [ 0.82018, 0.868804, 1.017747, 1.059403 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.7557, "volume": 4799176, "typical_volume": 14351065.5, "trend": 1.157793, "fair_value": 8.901406, "relative_strength": -75.076636, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.867457, "energy": 53.647197, "activity_lines": [ 0.79554, 0.834507, 0.986489, 1.030979 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.8512, "volume": 3232677, "typical_volume": 11908505.6, "trend": 1.1155, "fair_value": 8.656863, "relative_strength": -72.14825, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.991169, "energy": 44.976096, "activity_lines": [ 0.807907, 0.828198, 0.966013, 1.011199 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }