{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3c3732c0-f69b-437f-84d7-5199b5fb97fd", "symbol": "LLDR", "name": "GLOBAL X LONG-TERM TREASURY LADDER ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 74.659, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.708, "architecture_energy": 75.722, "architecture_maturity": 40.148, "architecture_confidence": 80.39, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.69, "rotation_up": 8.68, "upward_expansion": 17.32, "deceleration": 37.05, "rotation_down": 79.55, "downward_expansion": 95.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.318405, 43.755338, 44.00513, 44.216503 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 43.3106, "trend_reference": 44.505729, "distance_from_trend": -0.026853, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 44.043975, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.016651, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.656842, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.035285, "excess_performance": -0.16091, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.026853, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006635, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.016651, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026764, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.136568, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027289, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.035285, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.010115, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 638, "relative_activity": 0.62011, "balance": 1.010115, "dry_up": 0.732371, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015111, "annualized_volatility": 0.091041, "from_high_reference": -0.067029, "from_low_reference": 0.010327 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.505729, "fair_value_reference": 44.043975, "structural_low": 42.867884, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.005416, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.052042, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.020355, "worst_return": -0.040963, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.008754, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.147279, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.008754, "worst_return": -0.008754, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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44.436954, 44.36554, 44.388783, 44.544734 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 43.937462, "volume": 1393, "typical_volume": 1004.45, "trend": 44.668842, "fair_value": 44.07094, "relative_strength": -9.864111, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.402476, "energy": 28.211028, "activity_lines": [ 44.234494, 44.305836, 44.331681, 44.495936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.337884, "volume": 647, "typical_volume": 1009.7, "trend": 44.618491, "fair_value": 44.06346, "relative_strength": -10.314092, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.109247, "energy": 61.855961, "activity_lines": [ 43.865232, 44.147355, 44.229308, 44.410068 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.867884, "volume": 336, "typical_volume": 1009.05, "trend": 44.560245, "fair_value": 44.051383, "relative_strength": -11.885578, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.596175, "energy": 79.720913, "activity_lines": [ 43.440663, 43.903188, 44.092119, 44.297126 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.3106, "volume": 638, "typical_volume": 1028.85, "trend": 44.505729, "fair_value": 44.043975, "relative_strength": -13.656842, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.708109, "energy": 75.721816, "activity_lines": [ 43.318405, 43.755338, 44.00513, 44.216503 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }