{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3c4bc3fc-9a56-49a2-b297-d5d651099723", "symbol": "ARQT", "name": "Arcutis Biotherapeutics\u00a0Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 77.732, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.417, "architecture_energy": 35.508, "architecture_maturity": 24.959, "architecture_confidence": 53.83, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.26, "rotation_up": 49.54, "upward_expansion": 75.07, "deceleration": 67.74, "rotation_down": 19.26, "downward_expansion": 4.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.710667, 26.636, 25.168095, 24.714129 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 25.29, "trend_reference": 24.577167, "distance_from_trend": 0.029004, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.534135, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.740042, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.492928, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.074305, "excess_performance": -0.261758, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.029004, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030799, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price 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"A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.040682, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.075217, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.697108, "worst_return": -0.147408, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.17202, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.233605, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.193303, "worst_return": 0.150737, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.182141, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.278722, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.47793, "worst_return": -0.113647, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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24.538065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.86, "volume": 6057812, "typical_volume": 7667548.4, "trend": 24.674833, "fair_value": 14.429455, "relative_strength": 3.738, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.012797, "energy": 40.971503, "activity_lines": [ 27.364, 26.702, 25.056143, 24.674441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.29, "volume": 11671913, "typical_volume": 7756051.7, "trend": 24.577167, "fair_value": 14.534135, "relative_strength": -7.492928, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.417443, "energy": 35.508065, "activity_lines": [ 26.710667, 26.636, 25.168095, 24.714129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }